Impact of growing season temperature on grape prices in Australia

IF 2.5 3区农林科学 Q3 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research Pub Date : 2022-08-09 DOI:10.1111/ajgw.12566

G. Puga, K. Anderson, F. Doko Tchatoka

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Background and Aims

Cross-sectional models are useful for estimating the impact that climate and climate change have on grape prices due to changes in grape composition. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of growing season temperature (GST) on grape prices in Australia using cross-sectional data.

Methods and Results

We use data on average price by cultivar and region for a 10 year period. We estimate a model using (area-) weighted least squares and variables from a principal component analysis to control for 103 characteristics that relate to the production system used in each of 26 regions. Results suggest that a GST increase of 1°C leads to a decrease of 9% in the average price of grapes. A LASSO model that we use as a robustness check suggests similar results: a GST increase of 1°C leads to a decrease of 7.3% in the average price of grapes.

Conclusions

Failing to control for characteristics that relate to the production system overestimates the impact of GST on grape prices, suggesting that changes to variables in a production system may mitigate deleterious changes to grape composition due to climate change.

Significance of the Study

This study contributes to the understanding of the issue of omitted variable bias in cross-sectional models, and how to deal with this issue when analysing the impact of climate and climate change in grape and wine research.

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生长期温度对澳大利亚葡萄价格的影响

背景与目的横截面模型可用于估计由于葡萄成分变化而导致的气候和气候变化对葡萄价格的影响。本研究的目的是估计生长季节温度(GST)对葡萄价格在澳大利亚使用横截面数据的影响。方法与结果采用不同品种和地区的10年平均价格数据。我们使用(面积-)加权最小二乘和主成分分析中的变量来估计模型，以控制与26个地区中每个地区使用的生产系统相关的103个特征。结果表明，GST每增加1°C，导致葡萄平均价格下降9%。我们使用LASSO模型作为稳健性检查，得出了类似的结果:GST每增加1°C，导致葡萄平均价格下降7.3%。未能控制与生产系统相关的特征高估了GST对葡萄价格的影响，这表明生产系统中变量的变化可能会减轻气候变化对葡萄成分的有害变化。本研究有助于理解截面模型中遗漏变量偏差的问题，以及在分析气候和气候变化对葡萄和葡萄酒研究的影响时如何处理这一问题。

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来源期刊

Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research 工程技术-食品科技

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： The Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research provides a forum for the exchange of information about new and significant research in viticulture, oenology and related fields, and aims to promote these disciplines throughout the world. The Journal publishes results from original research in all areas of viticulture and oenology. This includes issues relating to wine, table and drying grape production; grapevine and rootstock biology, genetics, diseases and improvement; viticultural practices; juice and wine production technologies; vine and wine microbiology; quality effects of processing, packaging and inputs; wine chemistry; sensory science and consumer preferences; and environmental impacts of grape and wine production. Research related to other fermented or distilled beverages may also be considered. In addition to full-length research papers and review articles, short research or technical papers presenting new and highly topical information derived from a complete study (i.e. not preliminary data) may also be published. Special features and supplementary issues comprising the proceedings of workshops and conferences will appear periodically.