A geodetic sign of the critical point of stress-strain state at a plate boundary

Abstract

I found a curious oscillating behavior in secular variations of relative ground level in the Tokai district, central Japan. The period of the oscillation is becoming shorter acceleratedly with time, which thereby predicts the existence of a “critical point” in near future. The data variations can successfully be expressed by the general equation describing the near-critical-point behavior based on the discrete scale invariance theory. The critical point may be interpreted as the occurrence of the maximum-sized fracture, i.e., the biggest earthquake in a given tectonic environment. The time predicted is 2004.7 ± 1.7 year.