Forecasting: Trying to Reason from Hurricane Season

Abstract

Hurricane season presents an excellent illustration of a wide range of issues encountered in developing and responding to business forecasts. The high profile of hurricane forecasts---particularly during the 2004 season in which four hurricanes made landfall in Florida, and during the 2005 season when hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and the surrounding region---makes them a convenient, visible, and ideal illustrative classroom example. This paper outlines 25 business forecasting principles and their direct parallels in hurricane forecasting. This compilation has been successfully used by author as a basis for an in-class review of forecasting in an undergraduate operations management introductory course. A report of the positive student feedback and comparative test results is provided.