Another Look at Devaluation and the Trade Balance in China

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Review of Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2020-10-27 DOI:10.15353/rea.v12i3.1770
Ethan T. McGee, K. Upadhyaya, Rabin Bhandari
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Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of Chinese Yuan devaluation on the trade balance of China.  For that a regression equation is developed in which domestic income, foreign income, domestic money supply, foreign money supply and real effective exchange rate are used as explanatory variable with trade balance as the dependent variable. In order to test the J-curve phenomenon the lagged values of exchange rata are also included.  Quarterly time series data from 1999 to 2016 are used.  Before estimating the model the time series properties of the data are diagnosed and an error correction model is developed and estimated.  The estimated results show that the contemporaneous effect of devaluation is positive, but the total effect is insignificant.  A J-curve pattern of adjustment of the trade balance is also detected.
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再看人民币贬值与中国贸易平衡
本文估计了人民币贬值对中国贸易平衡的影响。为此,以国内收入、国外收入、国内货币供应量、国外货币供应量和实际有效汇率为解释变量,以贸易差额为因变量,建立了回归方程。为了检验j曲线现象,还包括汇率的滞后值。采用1999 - 2016年的季度时间序列数据。在估计模型之前,对数据的时间序列特性进行诊断,建立误差修正模型并进行估计。估计结果表明,贬值的同期效应为正,但总效应不显著。还发现了贸易平衡调整的j曲线模式。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
审稿时长
26 weeks
期刊最新文献
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