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The (non) impact of education on marital dissolution 教育对婚姻破裂的(非)影响
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v14i1.1803
Edith Aguirre
Despite the relevant role attributed to education on marital outcomes, literature does not show a generalized consensus regarding a positive or negative effect from education on marital decisions. In this paper the impact of education on marriage dissolution is analysed exploiting a change in the length of compulsory education in Mexico in 1993 as an instrument for education. The federal government increased compulsory education from completion of primary school, sixth grade, to completion of secondary school, ninth grade, at a national level. In the first part of the analysis, the probit models reveal that education is significant and negatively related to the probability of marital breakdown. An additional year of education is associated with a decrease between 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points in the probability of marital disruption for the 2002-2012 period. However, the results using the instrumental variables methodology indicate that an additional year of schooling has no effect on the probability of marriage dissolution. This finding demonstrates that the relationship between education and divorce is not causal and suggests that although higher levels of education are an undeniable trait observed in non-broken marriages, it is not education by itself one of the mechanisms leading to better marriage outcomes.
尽管教育在婚姻结果方面发挥着相关作用,但文献并没有显示出对教育对婚姻决定的积极或消极影响的普遍共识。本文利用1993年墨西哥义务教育年限的变化作为教育手段,分析了教育对婚姻破裂的影响。联邦政府在全国范围内将义务教育从小学六年级毕业提高到中学九年级毕业。在分析的第一部分,probit模型揭示了教育与婚姻破裂的概率显著且负相关。2002-2012年期间,多受一年教育会使婚姻破裂的可能性降低0.6至0.9个百分点。然而,使用工具变量方法的结果表明,额外一年的教育对婚姻破裂的概率没有影响。这一发现表明,教育与离婚之间的关系不是因果关系,并表明尽管在未破裂的婚姻中观察到较高的教育水平是一个不可否认的特征,但教育本身并不是导致更好婚姻结果的机制之一。
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引用次数: 0
Demand for Money in Greece After Euro Area and Policy Uncertainties 欧元区解体后希腊的货币需求和政策不确定性
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v14i1.4052
S. Ongan, Ismet Gocer
This study examines the asymmetric effects of uncertainties in monetary policy on the demand for money in Greece. In doing so, it introduces and uses the monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) index, which can probably be a very appropriate and robust explanatory variable in demand-for-money models. Therefore, this study with this index differs from previous empirical studies that use conventional uncertainty-based independent variables. Empirical findings of both models indicate that changes in the MPU index have significant effects on Greek money demand. Additionally, compendious inferences of the nonlinear model for the Greek people’s financial preferences are as follow as: (i): Greek people invest more in alternative financial instruments and/or spend their money rather than hold (demand) it when the MPU index rises, (ii): Greek people’s money demand in both increases and decreases in the MPU index is predominantly determined by longer-term bond rate changes.
本研究考察了希腊货币政策不确定性对货币需求的不对称影响。在这样做的过程中,它引入并使用了货币政策不确定性(MPU)指数,这可能是货币需求模型中一个非常合适和强大的解释变量。因此,本研究与以往使用传统的基于不确定性的自变量的实证研究不同。两种模型的实证结果都表明,MPU指数的变化对希腊货币需求有显著影响。此外,希腊人民金融偏好的非线性模型的简要推论如下:(i):当MPU指数上升时,希腊人更多地投资于替代金融工具和/或花钱而不是持有(需求)它;(ii):希腊人民的货币需求在MPU指数上升和下降时主要由长期债券利率变化决定。
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引用次数: 0
The Nexus between Causal Macroeconomic Relations in Japan 日本宏观经济因果关系的内在联系
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v14i1.4017
G. Zestos, Yixiao Jiang, Ryan D. Patnode
Japan achieved phenomenal economic growth after WWII. Starting in the early 1990s, however, the Japanese economy began experiencing a prolonged deflation-stagnation period widely known as the “Lost Decades”. Based on data from the World Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, this paper employs an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model to find evidence of a long run relation among the real GDP, real imports, the real exchange rate, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio for Japan. Once cointegration is established with the Bounds Test, Granger Causality tests are performed by employing an estimated Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with the same variables. The empirical results support Granger causality in all directions. In particular, we found real imports and public debt-to-GDP ratio to directly cause real GDP. Interestingly, the real exchange rate causes real GDP indirectly via imports. The public debt had a negative effect on GDP but did not wreak havoc on the Japanese economy. The study also examines whether former Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s unprecedented macroeconomic policies and structural reforms launched in 2013, known as Abenomics, are pulling Japan out of its economic doldrums.
日本在二战后取得了惊人的经济增长。然而,从20世纪90年代初开始,日本经济开始经历一段被称为“失去的几十年”的长期通货紧缩停滞期。基于世界银行和圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据,本文采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型来寻找日本实际GDP、实际进口、实际汇率和公共债务与GDP之比之间长期关系的证据。一旦协整与边界检验建立,格兰杰因果检验采用估计向量自回归(VAR)模型与相同的变量进行。实证结果全面支持格兰杰因果关系。特别是,我们发现实际进口和公共债务占GDP的比例直接影响实际GDP。有趣的是,实际汇率通过进口间接影响实际GDP。公共债务对GDP产生了负面影响,但并未对日本经济造成严重破坏。这项研究还考察了前首相安倍晋三(shinzo Abe)在2013年推出的前所未有的宏观经济政策和结构性改革,即所谓的“安倍经济学”(Abenomics),是否正在将日本从经济低迷中拉出来。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Direct Investment and the Robustness of Host-Country Commitment 外国直接投资与东道国承诺的稳健性
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v14i1.3582
Shaikh Shahnawaz
This paper presents a model of a forward-looking government wooing foreign direct investment by enacting policies that reflect its commitment to the foreign enterprise. The ease with which the government is able to spend or carry out economic reform to complement the foreign venture evolves over time and influences the likelihood of its sustained commitment. The domestic and external strength of the government, the stability and not necessarily the level of returns from the project, venture-specificity of government spending or reform, and public and elite attitudes toward foreign commercial entry determine how invested the government remains in the long term success of the enterprise. More committed governments tend to be stronger and prefer robust investor-regime relationships. Reform that is not designed too narrowly to favor the investor is also less likely to be reversed later. Like pro-FDI public sentiment, a noisy policy environment induces deeper government commitment.
本文提出了一个前瞻性政府通过制定反映其对外国企业承诺的政策来吸引外国直接投资的模型。随着时间的推移,政府支出或实施经济改革以补充外资企业的容易程度在不断变化,并影响其持续承诺的可能性。政府的国内和外部实力、项目的稳定性(不一定是回报水平)、政府支出或改革的风险特异性,以及公众和精英对外资进入的态度,决定了政府对企业长期成功的投资程度。更坚定的政府往往更强大,更喜欢稳健的投资者制度关系。如果改革的设计不是过于狭隘地偏向于投资者,那么以后逆转的可能性也较小。与支持外国直接投资的公众情绪一样,嘈杂的政策环境也会促使政府做出更深层次的承诺。
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引用次数: 0
Public Health Shock, Intervention Policies, and Health Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 公共卫生冲击、干预政策和健康行为:来自新冠肺炎的证据
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-10 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v14i1.4787
Samira Hasanzadeh, Modjgan Alishahi
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries, including the U.S., adopted intervention policies aimed at averting the spread. However, these policies may have led to significant changes in public health behaviors. We use Google search queries to examine how state government actions are associated with people’s internet searches (internet browsing habits) related to health behaviors. We employ the differences-in-differences method to determine the link between disease outbreak, associated intervention policies, and changes in health behavior related searches. Our findings show that school closures, restaurant restrictions, and stay-at-home orders lead to a significant rise in searches for workout, physical activity, exercise, takeout, liquor, and wine. Moreover, people’s concerns regarding weight loss, diet, nutrition, restaurant, and fast food substantially decline following stay-at-home orders. Our event-study results indicate that changes in health behaviors began weeks before stay-at-home orders were implemented contemporaneously with emergency declarations and other partial closures. These findings suggest that people’s health behaviors are notably affected by state government’s intervention policies.
为了应对新冠肺炎疫情,包括美国在内的许多国家采取了旨在避免疫情蔓延的干预政策。然而,这些政策可能导致了公共卫生行为的重大变化。我们使用谷歌搜索查询来研究州政府的行为如何与人们与健康行为相关的互联网搜索(互联网浏览习惯)相关联。我们采用差异中的差异方法来确定疾病爆发、相关干预政策和健康行为相关搜索变化之间的联系。我们的研究结果表明,学校关闭、餐馆限制和居家令导致锻炼、体育活动、锻炼、外卖、酒类和葡萄酒的搜索量显著增加。此外,人们对减肥、饮食、营养、餐厅和快餐的担忧在居家令后大幅下降。我们的事件研究结果表明,在居家令与紧急声明和其他部分关闭同时实施前几周,健康行为就开始发生变化。这些发现表明,人们的健康行为明显受到州政府干预政策的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Ethnic Inequality and Anti-authoritarianism in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲的种族不平等与反威权主义
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-10 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v14i1.4789
Karim Nchare, Moses Ogeny
Is ethnic inequality associated with aversion to authoritarian regimes and increase support for democracy as a means of influencing redistribution? Using four rounds of Afrobarometer panel data, covering 29 African countries and 353 distinct ethnic groups, and an ordered logistic model, we show that a rise in Between-ethnic inequality (BGI) is associated with an increase support for anti-authoritarianism and that its effects strengthen as Within-ethnic inequality (WGI) decreases. We  find that individuals most strongly support democracy when ethnic identity is reinforced by economic inequality. We also show that support for a change of regime is reinforced when some ethnic groups believe they are politically excluded from government.
种族不平等是否与厌恶独裁政权和增加对民主的支持有关,民主是影响再分配的一种手段?使用四轮Afrobarometer面板数据,涵盖29个非洲国家和353个不同的种族群体,以及有序的逻辑模型,我们发现种族间不平等(BGI)的增加与对反威权主义的支持增加有关,并且随着种族内不平等(WGI)的减少,其影响也会加强。我们发现,当经济不平等加剧了种族认同时,个人最强烈地支持民主。我们还表明,当一些族裔群体认为他们在政治上被排除在政府之外时,对政权更迭的支持就会得到加强。
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引用次数: 0
Special issue: ICEA Public Policy Lesson conference, part of the After the Pandemic Conference Series 特刊:ICEA公共政策教训会议,大流行后系列会议的一部分
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-10 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v14i1.4785
J. Konieczny
The Covid-19 Pandemic has been a singular event that affected health, economic situation and social cohesion around the world.The International Centre for Economic Analysis (ICEA), has organized the After the Pandemic Conference Series. The conferences in the series are devoted to analyzing various aspects of the pandemic and their long-term consequences. Conference participants were offered the opportunity to submit their papers to the Review of Economic Analysis, which is the official journal of the ICEA.The papers in this special issue (or their earlier versions) were presented at the Public Policy Lessons Conference, the third conference in the series, which was held online Nov 12-13, 2021. The program of the conference can be found here.The list of conferences, and details, is on the ICEA website, https://ICEAnet.org.
新冠肺炎大流行是一个独特的事件,影响了世界各地的健康、经济形势和社会凝聚力。国际经济分析中心组织了“大流行病后系列会议”。该系列会议致力于分析疫情的各个方面及其长期后果。与会者有机会向经济分析学会的官方期刊《经济分析评论》提交论文。本特刊中的论文(或其早期版本)在2021年11月12日至13日在线举行的公共政策教训会议上发表,这是该系列的第三次会议。会议的日程安排可以在这里找到。会议列表和详细信息可在ICEA网站上查看,https://ICEAnet.org.
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引用次数: 0
Role of Social Media in Socioeconomic Development: Case of Facebook 社交媒体在社会经济发展中的作用:以Facebook为例
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-12 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v13i3.4054
N. Amrouche, M. Hababou
To study the role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on countries’ socioeconomic development, the paper investigates the case of Facebook penetration on improving their standing as measured via GNI per capita PPP (Gross National Income per capita based on purchasing power parity). We use four macro factors categories (political, economic, demographic, and technological) in addition to Facebook penetration per capita in order to measure the potential influence of various factors on the socioeconomic level of countries. While the analyses of ICT effect on development has been the focus of many papers in the past, the specific analysis of social media is scarce. Compared to previous studies investigating social media role, we use a large dataset covering all classes of countries and examine holistically many types of determinants using different models. In addition, we distinguish our paper using the economic classification of countries according to the World Bank. Our study indicates that Facebook penetration has a significant positive role on the socioeconomic level of countries, but such role varies depending on the countries’ classification level. Besides, there is a decreasing marginal effect showing the importance for policy makers to assess the complex dynamic behind the characteristic of each country.
为了研究信息和通信技术(ICT)对国家社会经济发展的作用,本文调查了Facebook普及率对提高其地位的影响,这是通过人均GNI PPP(基于购买力平价的人均国民总收入)来衡量的。除了Facebook的人均渗透率外,我们还使用了四个宏观因素类别(政治、经济、人口和技术)来衡量各种因素对各国社会经济水平的潜在影响。虽然过去许多论文都在重点分析ICT对发展的影响,但对社交媒体的具体分析却很少。与之前调查社交媒体角色的研究相比,我们使用了涵盖所有类别国家的大型数据集,并使用不同的模型全面检查了许多类型的决定因素。此外,我们根据世界银行对国家的经济分类来区分我们的论文。我们的研究表明,Facebook渗透率对国家的社会经济水平有显著的积极作用,但这种作用因国家的分类水平而异。此外,边际效应的递减表明决策者评估每个国家特征背后的复杂动态的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
Shape Evolution of the Interest Rate Term Structure 利率期限结构的形态演化
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-09 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v13i3.4698
Biwei Chen
This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically linked to the recessions in the post-WWII data. In forecasting recessions, the median-short yield spread trumps the long-short spread for horizons up to 17 months ahead and the yield curve shape is nearly impressive as the median-short spread. Overall, the yield curve shape is an informative but more succinct indicator than the spreads in studying the term structure. Key words: Business cycle, recession forecast, U.S. Treasury yield curve, yield spreads.
本文采用一种新颖的方法来研究美国经济周期中利率期限结构的演变并预测经济衰退。运用一种有效的算法,我将国债收益率曲线划分为不同的形状,并在二战后的数据中找到与衰退内在联系较少的形状。在预测衰退时,短中值收益率差在未来17个月的范围内优于长短利差,收益率曲线的形状几乎与短中值收益率差一样令人印象深刻。总的来说,在研究期限结构时,收益率曲线的形状是一个信息丰富但更简洁的指标。关键词:经济周期;衰退预测;美国国债收益率曲线;
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引用次数: 0
On the Distributional Outcomes of Policy-Induced Entrepreneurial Opportunities 论政策性创业机会的分配结果
IF 0.5 Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-08 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v13i3.3510
Hal W. Snarr, D. Friesner
This analysis empirically evaluates the effectiveness of entrepreneurial policies using the number and distribution of firms as outcome variables.  The analysis occurs within the context of a natural experiment: the START-UP NY program. Implemented in 2014, START-UP NY created enterprise development zones adjacent to publicly supported universities (i.e., SUNY and CUNY campuses) within the state. New business start-ups operating within these zones, and within a specific set of technology and health-related industries received tax incentives that substantially lowered tax rates for a 5-10 year period. In 2016, the State of New York substantially altered its corporate tax structure; a policy initiative affecting firms, business owners, and households in the state simultaneously, and may also induce entrepreneurship. The results suggest that START-UP NY had a positive effect on the growth of New York's micro and small-sized firms operating in professional, scientific, and technical industries. START-UP NY also negatively affected micro-sized manufacturing firms, while positively affecting small manufacturing firms. The latter finding suggests that START-UP NY is effective in incubating micro-sized manufacturing firms that eventually grow into small manufacturing firms.
该分析使用企业的数量和分布作为结果变量,实证评估创业政策的有效性。分析发生在一个自然实验的背景下:纽约启动项目。START-UP NY于2014年实施,在州内公共支持的大学(即纽约州立大学和纽约市立大学校园)附近创建了企业开发区。在这些区域内、特定技术和健康相关行业内运营的新企业获得了税收优惠,在5-10年内大幅降低了税率。2016年,纽约州大幅改变了公司税结构;同时影响该州企业、企业主和家庭的政策举措,也可能引发创业。研究结果表明,纽约初创企业对纽约专业、科学和技术行业的微型和小型企业的增长产生了积极影响。纽约初创企业也对微型制造业企业产生了负面影响,而对小型制造业企业则产生了积极影响。后一项发现表明,纽约初创企业在孵化最终成长为小型制造业公司的微型制造业公司方面是有效的。
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引用次数: 0
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Review of Economic Analysis
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