Investigating Persistence in the US Mutual Fund Market: A Mobility Approach

Abstract

Performance persistence in the US mutual fund market is investigated, modeling risk-adjusted performance as a Markov Chain. This allows us to explore whether there is a higher probability for funds to remain in their initial ranking, compared to the probability that funds exhibit some kind of movement. We find some degree of inertia due to non-uniformity of transition probabilities across states. Our analysis allows also assesses the proximity of empirical transition matrices to two benchmark matrices, identifying the no-persistence/perfect immobility cases. We find that the observed transition matrices are closer to the no-persistence benchmark and also that performance persistence has decreased over time.