Participation in the international coalition against Daesh and the rise of foreign fighters

IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Economics of Peace and Security Journal Pub Date : 2019-03-25 DOI:10.15355/EPSJ.14.1.60
C. D. Bois, C. Buts
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The flow of foreign fighters leaving for Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic has slowed, but they often still pose a serious threat, either by encouraging others toward violence or by directly assisting themselves in a terrorist attack after their return. This article studies the effect of a country’s active involvement in a conflict zone on the flow of foreign fighters. Specifically, we test whether a nation’s participation in the international coalition against Daesh influences its number of foreign fighters. Despite the small sample size resulting from limited official data on foreign fighters, we report several interesting insights for cautious interpretation and only regarding the countries included. Findings from a negative binomial model suggest that a country’s active international role against Daesh also increases the foreign fighters coming from that country. Hence, it is important to keep in mind that the cost of a military intervention can be higher than the cost of the operation itself. Policymakers should also account for the cost of the increased number of foreign fighters and the resulting threat.
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参与打击达伊沙的国际联盟以及外国武装分子的崛起
前往伊拉克和阿拉伯叙利亚共和国的外国战斗人员的流动已经放缓,但他们往往仍然构成严重威胁,要么是鼓励他人采取暴力行动,要么是在回国后直接协助自己发动恐怖袭击。本文研究了一个国家积极参与冲突地区对外国战斗人员流动的影响。具体来说,我们测试了一个国家参与打击达伊沙的国际联盟是否会影响其外国战斗人员的数量。尽管样本量小,由于外国战斗人员的官方数据有限,我们报告了一些有趣的见解,以谨慎的解释,只涉及所包括的国家。负二项模型的研究结果表明,一个国家在打击达伊沙的国际行动中发挥的积极作用也会增加来自该国的外国战斗人员。因此,重要的是要记住,军事干预的成本可能高于行动本身的成本。政策制定者还应考虑到外国战斗人员数量增加所带来的成本以及由此带来的威胁。
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7
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