Emerging product-process archetypes in oncology: informing the sustainable provision of next-generation medicines

Abstract

The emergence of more targeted molecular therapies has contributed to accelerated growth within the oncology market, with forecast spends expected to be circa $74-84 billion by 2018. Coupled with its many specificities around pricing, insurance implications and ethics, we argue that the segment may best inform future pharmaceutical value network design characteristics. Through exploration of future state scenarios and opportunity areas, driven by the adoption of emerging process and digital technologies, a base framework is extended to enable a systematic assessment of candidates that are representative of the wider oncology market. These include niche, low volume drugs on-patent, through to higher volume generics with a history of supply shortages. Oncology 'archetypes' are proposed - classified as 'new niche', 'old niche' and 'established generics' - and applied to develop associated models for reconfiguration, through matching emerging process capabilities to future adaptive supply requirements, and informing the potential for economies of drug 'repurposing'.