DEVELOPMENT DIRECTIONS OF UKRAINE ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT GLOBALIZATION SCENARIOS

Abstract

The paper identifies the features of participation of Ukraine in neoliberal globalization processes, as well as the course of the 2020-2021 Global hiatus related to the current world financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic and the “great lockdown” as its consequence. Among others, the study methods include the analysis of relevant scientific publications, screening and content analysis of analytical sources, statistical reports and open media. The research goal is to forecast possible ways of socio-economic development of Ukraine after the COVID-19 crisis using the potential options of the global future proposed by A.T. Kearney (2016). Using SWOT analysis, the prospects for the development of Ukraine and its regions are detailed according to the four very different potential scenarios: globalization 3.0, polarization, islandization and commonization, that highlight the scientific novelty of the research. The most probable (symbiosis of globalization and polarization) and the most preferable (commonization) scenarios are determined. At the same time, a contribution to the international scientific discourse on the Global hiatus concept was made, as well as to the discussion on the importance of increasing the regulatory impact of state, in particular on social issues and environmental protection, and to the discourse on rejection of neoliberal fundamentalism with further transition to post-liberalism and alter-globalization. © 2021, National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.