Excess mortality in Russian regions during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Relevance. In Russia, there are significant regional variations in the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g. the growth in the number of deaths ranged from 7% in Novgorod Region to 43% in the Chechen Republic). In this paper, we focus on excess mortality and the key factors that contributed to it in order to get a better understanding of reasons behind such dramatic regional variations. The research objective is to assess excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic and identify the key factors influencing the growth in mortality and regional variations in this indicator. Data and methods. The paper uses the analytical, statistical and correlation methods and the statistical data on Russian regions provided by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). Results. The analysis of excess mortality in Russian regions during the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular the correlation between excess mortality and intensity of human flows, has been used to build a typology of regions. In total, the regions were divided into four groups, and for each group the main factors that contributed to the growth in mortality were identified. The research findings can be used by policy-makers to devise more efficient regional policies in response to the COVID-19 crisis.