Modelling Outflow Remittances in the Digital Era: A Subnational Analysis of Russia

Abstract

Relevance. The outflow of funds from the Russian economy, including remittances, can have a significant impact on the country's economic development. The influence of digital technologies and the heterogeneity of Russian regions further complicate the study of factors affecting remittance outflows. This study aims to address this research gap by examining the spatial effects of remittance outflows from Russia at the regional level within the context of digital transformation. Research Objective. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate whether spatial effects exist in the outflow of remittances from Russia at the regional level and how digitalization affects this phenomenon. By exploring spatial autocorrelation and fitting spatial models, we aim to understand the mutual influence and interdependence of regions in cross-border remittances. Data and Methods. The study utilizes open annual data from the Bank of Russia on cross-border remittances and data from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. The research methodology includes spatial autocorrelation estimation and the application of spatial models. Results. Our findings indicate that the digitalization of business transactions leads to a decline in cross-border remittances that do not involve payment systems. This finding primarily relates to the relatively low share of non-resident remittances within formal remittances. The results underscore the importance of considering spatial differentiation among regions in terms of remittance volume when formulating regional policies. Furthermore, the study reveals a shifting trend towards the emergence of major centers for outgoing transfers in the Far Eastern part of Russia and an increase in remittance volumes from border regions in the European part of Russia. Conclusions. The policy implications of this study highlight the need to encourage the participation of the population's savings in the domestic economy. This can be achieved through measures aimed at facilitating internal investment and financial inclusion.