Public and Private Measures of Consumer Confidence in Turkey: Substitutes or Complements

Abstract

Consumer confidence indices are among the major economic variables as private consumption stands as the major component of aggregate demand in many economies. This is also relevant for an emerging economy like Turkey. ”What determines consumer confidence?” is one of the most popular questions in the literature of consumer surveys. There are two consumer confidence indices regularly released in Turkey. One is released by a private corporation, CNBC-e, in the first day of every month since January 2002. The other one is released by two public institutions, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), jointly since 2004. Although the goal is the same for both indices, there are differences between them in terms of the methodology and sampling size. This study has two aims: One is to detect the degree of correlation between these indices which will allow for commenting on the reliability of the indices; The other one is to test the relation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rate variables and the consumer confidence in Turkey by using both indices.