From Trump to Biden: What Will Happen to NATO?

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the process of transformation of NATO in the post-bipolar period and forecasting the prospects of the alliance. In the context of the bloc’s evolution, as well as taking into account the different approaches to US foreign policy on the part of the two leading parties and the most influential political and ideological groups, the authors investigate the reasons for the deterioration of transatlantic relations, including how Washington used the potential of the alliance to solve its strategic tasks in the past and present. It is noted that after the end of the Cold War, all US presidents to some extent used unilateral approaches to achieve the national interests of the United States at the expense of NATO, which contributed to the accumulation of discontent in Europe with American dominance in the alliance and the desire for a certain autonomy in the field of defense and security. In fact, President D. Trump continued the traditional conservative policy of B. Obama towards NATO, which was supposed to ensure the implementation of the strategy of “Pivot to Asia”. The Republicans’ use of harsh rhetoric and threats has seriously undermined transatlantic solidarity. Although conservative political and ideological groups in the United States actively supported Trump’s approach as “effective”, nevertheless, the majority of groups in both parties (liberals, realists and neoconservatives) for various reasons believed that such a policy does not meet American interests and it is necessary to consider the possibility of granting the EU greater independence in the field of defense and security. Since after Biden’s victory, the initiative on the issue of NATO policy passed into the hands of representatives of liberal groups, the President will have to look for ways to synthesize the points of view of progressives, “restorationists” and “reformists” within the framework of internal party competition. It is concluded that in the context of the new balance of power in the world the Biden administration will most likely be forced to abandon the traditional vision of the role of NATO in favor of the “reformist” concept of “strategic autonomy” of Europe.