Stagnation in fertility levels in Pakistan.

Abstract

Finally at the turn of the century and after decades of stagnancy there was definite evidence of a decline in fertility in Pakistan. Fertility in Pakistan probably began to decline in the early 1990s or even in the late 1980s. Significantly all estimates for the 1990s for the first time fell below 6.0 births per woman to a little less than five. This is in contrast to numerous surveys that indicated that the TFR remained above six births per woman in the 1980s. Furthermore the last census held finally in 1998 indicated that the average population growth rate for the period 1981-1998 was 2.6 per cent per annum a decline from previous intercensal rates consistent with a decline in fertility in the 1990s. While this trend in fertility decline has continued - even touted as one of the "fastest declines in Asia" - the latest Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) indicates a stall in fertility at four children per woman. (excerpt)