Russia Common electricity market of the EEU: Effects for Russia

A. Kolomiets, A. Kurdin
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Abstract

The integration of the EEU economic space includes measures directed to create common electric power markets, however, theoretical and empirical scientific research does not allow us to speak unequivocally about the positive effects for all participants of such an integration alliance. The issue of creating a common electricity market of the EEU countries is also quite controversial in practice due to a number of existing regulatory and technical barriers. The presented work is proposed to consider the possible consequences of the creation of wholesale electricity markets for Russia. The author, using the autoregressive fractional-integrated moving average model, shows that the creation of a common electricity market of the EEU countries may be premature at the current level of technical capabilities and the structure of national markets. Obtained as a result of modeling forecast price of the general market exceeds the price of the domestic wholesale market in Russia. It can cause a disparity in supply and demand on the domestic and the general markets, that increases in prices for the domestic buyers with some probability. Thus, the integration effects of the creation of a common electricity market may not always be positive for all parties to the agreement, which means that the overall gain from lower electricity prices under such an agreement requires a comparison of the costs and benefits of the agent making the decision to join such an alliance.
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欧亚经济联盟共同电力市场对俄罗斯的影响
欧亚经济联盟经济空间的整合包括旨在创建共同电力市场的措施,然而,理论和实证科学研究不允许我们明确地谈论这种整合联盟对所有参与者的积极影响。建立欧亚经济联盟国家共同电力市场的问题在实践中也颇有争议,因为存在一些现有的监管和技术障碍。提出的工作是为了考虑俄罗斯批发电力市场的创建可能产生的后果。本文运用自回归分数积分移动平均模型,分析了以目前的技术能力水平和各国市场结构来看,建立欧亚经济联盟国家共同电力市场可能为时过早。通过建模预测得出一般市场的价格超过俄罗斯国内批发市场的价格。这可能会导致国内市场和一般市场的供需不平衡,从而有可能导致国内买家的价格上涨。因此,创建一个共同电力市场的整合效应可能并不总是对协议的所有各方都是积极的,这意味着在这样一个协议下,从更低的电价中获得的总体收益需要对决定加入这样一个联盟的代理人的成本和收益进行比较。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
20.00%
发文量
9
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