Current approaches to resource risk-management of innovative projects

N. Lukashov
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Abstract

The purpose of this article is to develop a theoretical mechanism for planning free cash flows of an innovative project, provided that it is necessary to ensure a highly probable possibility of its implementation. The review of special literature shows that the problem of resource risk management of investment projects in the world economic practice is not new, but the methodological apparatus of project risk management is not sufficiently developed. The result of applying the method of induction in the analysis of the General theory of project risk management terms the planned commercialization of innovation, identified areas of possible application of effort in the management of project risks in investment planning implementation of innovations, the main of which is recognized as a building of special reserve funds within the project budget for the relief of consequences of the possible manifestations related risks. Alternative methods for justifying the values of risk reserve funds for cash flows from operating activities and capital expenditures were created by means of an essential analysis and an actual methodology for constructing the values of risk reserve funds. Using classical deduction to previously obtained results, an algorithm for planning free cash flows of an innovative project was developed and formalized, provided that it is necessary to ensure a highly probable possibility of its implementation. The algorithm for accounting for project risks has been tested on practical material. The results of the study are not only of theoretical and methodological significance, but also have a high practical significance. The scope of their application is not limited to the use of high — tech innovations in the framework of investment design. They can and should be used in all cases when it is necessary to reliably achieve the priority goals set by the initiators of risky investments in the real sector of the economy in the future.
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创新项目资源风险管理的现行方法
本文的目的是建立一个理论机制,规划一个创新项目的自由现金流,前提是有必要确保其实施的高度可能性。专题文献综述表明,投资项目资源风险管理问题在世界经济实践中并不是一个新问题,但项目风险管理的方法论工具还不够完善。结果运用归纳法对项目风险管理的一般理论术语进行了归纳分析,确定了在项目风险管理中可能应用的领域,努力将项目风险管理应用于创新项目的投资规划实施中,其中主要确认为在项目预算范围内建立专项储备资金,用于缓解相关风险可能表现的后果。通过基本分析和构建风险准备基金价值的实际方法,创造了证明来自经营活动和资本支出的现金流的风险准备基金价值的替代方法。利用经典演绎法对已有结果进行推导,提出了一种规划创新项目自由现金流的算法,并将其形式化,前提是必须确保其实现的高可能性。该算法已在实际资料上进行了检验。研究结果不仅具有理论意义和方法论意义,而且具有很高的现实意义。它们的应用范围并不局限于在投资设计框架中使用高科技创新。在今后有必要可靠地实现在实体经济部门进行风险投资的发起者所确定的优先目标时,它们可以而且应该在所有情况下使用。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
20.00%
发文量
9
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