India-China Trade: History, Present State and Prospects

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.17323/1813-8691-2022-26-2-307-332

N. Galistcheva, M. Reshchikova

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Abstract

The article analyzes the emergence of the modern India-China trade. The authors examine historic foundations of the mutual trade and its growth dynamics. Particular attention is paid to the recent changes in the bilateral trade connected with difficulties in India-China relations and economic problems caused by the global coronavirus pandemic. The article focuses on the commodity structure of the Indian export to China and import from the PRC, with the lack of clearly visible tendencies in annual supply along with a strong trend in purchase being detected. Special importance is attached to the analysis of the technology level of the mutual trade. Prevailing low-technology and medium-technology level products in the Indian export are assessed, and it is stated that the share of high-technology level goods is growing slowly. At the same time, it is underlined that the Indian import from China consists mainly of high value-added products. The authors study the importance of the bilateral trade, concluding that China's role in the overall Indian trade is greater than visa versa. A range of trade indices are estimated that allow to evaluate the effectiveness of the mutual trade comprehensively. A relatively low intensity of India-China commercial ties is emphasized, and an average level of intraindustry trade, as well as high complementarity of India-China export and import are pointed out. The article also analyzes the trade in services the volume of which is almost impossible to assess due to the lack of statistical data. The authors identify the main problems impeding the effective trade development, including trade imbalances, namely the high trade deficit and uneven export and import structure, the closed nature of the both countries' markets, high tariff and non-tariff barriers and India's trade dependence on China. Regarding the prospects of the trade, the authors examine the Indian policy aimed at overcoming the imbalances, identify the factors that promote bilateral interaction and assess the possibility of creating a free trade zone between India and China. © 2022 Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics. All rights reserved.

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印中贸易:历史、现状和前景

本文分析了近代中印贸易的产生。作者考察了双边贸易的历史基础及其增长动态。双方特别关注最近因印中关系困难和全球冠状病毒大流行造成的经济问题而导致的双边贸易变化。本文重点分析了印度对华出口和从中国进口的商品结构，其中年度供应缺乏清晰可见的趋势，同时发现了强劲的购买趋势。对双边贸易技术水平的分析尤为重要。对印度出口中普遍存在的低技术水平和中等技术水平产品进行了评估，指出高技术水平产品的份额增长缓慢。同时，需要强调的是，印度从中国进口的主要是高附加值产品。作者研究了双边贸易的重要性，得出的结论是，中国在印度整体贸易中的作用大于反之。估计了一系列贸易指数，以便全面评估相互贸易的有效性。强调印中商业联系强度较低，产业内贸易处于平均水平，进出口互补性强。文章还对服务贸易进行了分析，由于缺乏统计数据，服务贸易的规模几乎无法估计。作者指出了阻碍有效贸易发展的主要问题，包括贸易不平衡，即高贸易逆差和不平衡的进出口结构，两国市场的封闭性质，高关税和非关税壁垒以及印度对中国的贸易依赖。关于贸易前景，作者研究了印度旨在克服失衡的政策，确定了促进双边互动的因素，并评估了在印度和中国之间建立自由贸易区的可能性。©2022高等经济学院出版社。版权所有。

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来源期刊

HSE Economic Journal Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The HSE Economic Journal publishes refereed papers both in Russian and English. It has perceived better understanding of the market economy, the Russian one in particular, since being established in 1997. It disseminated new and diverse ideas on economic theory and practice, economic modeling, applied mathematical and statistical methods. Its Editorial Board and Council consist of prominent Russian and foreign researchers whose activity has fostered integration of the world scientific community. The target audience comprises researches, university professors and graduate students. Submitted papers should match JEL classification and can cover country specific or international economic issues, in various areas, such as micro- and macroeconomics, econometrics, economic policy, labor markets, social policy. Apart from supporting high quality economic research and academic discussion the Editorial Board sees its mission in searching for the new authors with original ideas. The journal follows international reviewing practices – at present submitted papers are subject to single blind review of two reviewers. The journal stands for meeting the highest standards of publication ethics.