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A Nexus Among Technology Input, Research Activity, Innovation, and Economic Growth: A vis-à-vis Analysis between Asia and Europe 技术投入、研究活动、创新和经济增长之间的联系:对-à-vis亚洲和欧洲之间的分析
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-1-122-147
M. Pandey, K. Shekhawat, I. Sergeeva, O. Orlova
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引用次数: 0
Factors Affecting the Intention to Use Digital Banking Services: A Case Study on Elderly Customers in Vietnam 影响数字银行服务使用意愿的因素:以越南老年客户为例
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-270-289
Tran Thị Thanh Nga
Based on Technology Acceptance Theory (TAM) and Linear Structural Model (SEM), the author predicts factors affecting the intention to use digital banking of customers from 50 years old in Vietnam. For this study, 350 valid responses out of 398 survey participants have been collected and utilized for data analysis, digital banking are found easy to use, helpful, reliable, and less risky for elderly customers, which might increase the elderly’s demands and intentions to use them. Regarding the behaviors of elderly customers, this study will provide an insight into elderly customers’ expectations accessing digital banking services during the COVID-19 pandemic in emerging markets. Furthermore, the researcher proposes an integrated model to predict behaviors and examines main.
基于技术接受理论(TAM)和线性结构模型(SEM),作者预测了越南50岁以上客户使用数字银行意愿的影响因素。本研究在398名调查参与者中收集了350份有效回复并进行了数据分析,发现数字银行对老年客户来说易于使用,有用,可靠,风险较小,这可能会增加老年人的需求和使用意愿。关于老年客户的行为,本研究将深入了解新兴市场老年客户在COVID-19大流行期间访问数字银行服务的期望。此外,研究人员提出了一个综合模型来预测行为,并对主要行为进行了检验。
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引用次数: 0
RCEP Impact on Economic Links between PRC and Japan RCEP对中日经济联系的影响
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-248-269
V. Zuev, E. Ostrovskaya, M. Kuznetsov
The growing economic potential and the size of the market have turned China into the main trading partner of many countries, including Japan. Japan, in turn, provides a leading rolein the technological and investment cooperation of the Asia-Pacific countries, including China. However, until recently, the two leading Asian economies were not linked by an FTA Agreement, even though such agreements dominate international trade. The situation is being changed by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), which entered into force in January 2022, creating new conditions for the development of foreign economic relations in the region. Prerequisites are being formed for a radical change in the situation, fundamentally re­versing the decades-long predominance of trade with the EU and the US in fast-growing Asian markets. The leading Asian countries are forming a space for the growth of mutual trade due to the promotion of preferential market access. By becoming part of the world's largest free trade zone, China and Japan are creating new growth points, primarily in trade for Japan and in expan­ding access to innovation and investment for China, which is of particular importance in a period of global instability and recession, trade wars, and geopolitical transformations.The purpose of the article is to determine the significance of the RCEP Agreement in trade and economic cooperation between China and Japan.The study hypothesizes that the participation of the two largest economies of the region in the RCEP is based on the deep mutual strategic interest of the partners: On the part of Japan, it is projected in a significant increase in exports to the capacious market of the People's Republic of China while on the part of the People's Republic of China, it is expressed in the possibility of pro­viding additional investment inflows and accelerating innovative development in key in dustries.
不断增长的经济潜力和市场规模使中国成为包括日本在内的许多国家的主要贸易伙伴。反过来,日本在包括中国在内的亚太国家的技术和投资合作中发挥了主导作用。然而,直到最近,这两个亚洲主要经济体还没有通过自由贸易协定联系起来,尽管这类协定主导着国际贸易。2022年1月生效的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)改变了这一局面,为该地区对外经济关系的发展创造了新的条件。彻底改变这种局面的先决条件正在形成,这将从根本上扭转数十年来在快速增长的亚洲市场上与欧盟和美国贸易占主导地位的局面。亚洲主要国家通过促进优惠市场准入,正在形成相互贸易增长的空间。通过成为世界上最大的自由贸易区的一部分,中国和日本正在创造新的增长点,主要是在日本的贸易和扩大中国获得创新和投资的机会方面,这在全球不稳定和衰退、贸易战和地缘政治转型的时期尤为重要。本文的目的是确定RCEP协定在中日经贸合作中的意义。研究推测,该地区的两个最大的经济体参与RCEP基于深度合作伙伴的共同战略利益:日本的一部分,它预计在宽敞的显著增加出口市场的中华人民共和国,中华人民共和国的一部分,它是表达的可能性,提供额外的投资流入和加速创新在行业发展的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Is There a Weekend Effect? Russian Stock Market Research Based on Fuzzy Systems 周末效应存在吗?基于模糊系统的俄罗斯股票市场研究
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-3-412-434
V. Sviyazov
The problem of volatility forecasting with and without consideration of weekly seasonality effect (the weekend effect) is examined in this research. The question of the seasonality existence is understood in the following sense: do models, which incorporate seasonality, feature better forecasts? The fuzzy GARCH model, which accounts for a weekly seasonality effect is presented in the paper. This model is based on the ordinary GARCH model but allows for the use different dependences in different clusters (both of volatility and seasonality), as well as for the so-called soft switching between the clusters. The suggested method is applied to two indices, which can be deemed as indicators of the Russian stock market condition. The indices are the MOEX Russia Index and the RTS Index. The proposed model is challenged against a fuzzy model without seasonality and a classic GARCH model. The conducted calculations suggest that there is no significant improvement of a forecast if a seasonality is embedded into the fuzzy GARCH model. Fuzzy models show comparable results with regards to the conventional autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. Thus, fuzzy models can be used along with traditional models, however day of the week consideration doesn’t yield a greater quality of volatility forecasts, at least on the samples used. The fuzzy GARCH model may be useful for financial risks estimation and for evaluation of the Value at Risk metric in particular.
本文研究了考虑周季节性效应(周末效应)和不考虑周季节性效应的波动率预测问题。季节性存在的问题可以从以下意义上理解:包含季节性的模型是否具有更好的预测?本文提出了考虑周季节性影响的模糊GARCH模型。该模型基于普通GARCH模型,但允许在不同的集群中使用不同的依赖关系(波动性和季节性),以及所谓的集群之间的软切换。将所提出的方法应用于两个指数,这两个指数可以看作是俄罗斯股市状况的指标。这些指数是MOEX俄罗斯指数和RTS指数。该模型与不带季节性的模糊模型和经典GARCH模型进行了比较。所进行的计算表明,如果在模糊GARCH模型中嵌入季节性因素,预测结果不会有显著改善。模糊模型与传统的自回归条件异方差模型具有可比性。因此,模糊模型可以与传统模型一起使用,但是考虑一周中的哪一天并不能产生更高质量的波动率预测,至少在使用的样本上是这样。模糊GARCH模型可用于财务风险估计,特别是对风险值度量的评价。
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引用次数: 0
Developing an OLG Model with Heterogeneous Preferences and Learning Abilities for Higher Education Policy Analysis 基于异质性偏好和学习能力的高等教育政策分析OLG模型
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-3-449-469
A. Shpilevaya, A. Polbin, S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
This paper proposes a model of overlapping generations with heterogeneous preferences and higher education sector for a representative country where the Unified State Examination (USE) is taken. Unlike other models that study the accumulation of human capital based on the assumption of homogeneity of the parameters of individuals' preferences, in the proposed model heterogeneity is introduced when describing the abilities of individuals, approximated by Unified State Exam scores, risk aversion and intertemporal discounting under conditions of uncertainty. The purpose of this work is to develop and construct a model on which a methodology for as ses-sing strategies (rather than specific options) for the development of the education system can be based in the ideology of general equilibrium models. This article has developed an apparatus for analyzing strategies for the development of the education sector, which can be refined and finalized to analyze specific detailed options for transformations in the field of education.
本文提出了一个具有代表性的国家统一考试(USE)的跨代异质偏好和高等教育部门重叠模型。与其他基于个人偏好参数同质性假设来研究人力资本积累的模型不同,该模型在描述个人能力时引入了异质性,以不确定条件下的统一考试成绩、风险厌恶和跨期贴现来近似。这项工作的目的是开发和构建一个模型,在这个模型上,教育系统发展的整体战略(而不是具体选择)的方法可以基于一般均衡模型的意识形态。本文提出了一种分析教育部门发展战略的方法,可以对其加以改进和最后确定,以分析教育领域变革的具体详细选择。
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引用次数: 0
Macrofinance: The Sigmoidal Dynamics of Money, Debt and Wealth 宏观金融:货币、债务和财富的s型动力学
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-3-317-363
A. Smirnov
The compact model of an integrated macro-financial system, proposed in the paper, represents the dynamics of money, debt and wealth. Aristotle had observed the contradictory nature of these economic indicators, which is also evident in the current phase of global financialization, particularly in the use of “deferred” assets accounts by central banks.In the model, macrofinancial assets, liabilities and real wealth are balanced by considering the dual attributes of money, defined as standard for either “deferred” or current payments. The circulation of liquidity between the financial and real segments of the money market links the accumulation of genuine wealth with the formation of macrodebt, representing the expected but unrealized wealth. The volume of financial contracts is measured in the model by the system’s characteristic time, which determines the repayment dates of obligations. Since the financial subsystem does not produce tangible goods, wealth accumulation occurs in the aggregated real market over calendar time. The dynamics of money, debt and wealth dynamics are modeled using logistic ordinary differential equations, resulting in three-dimensional surfaces representing macrofinancial indices such as total, financial and real wealth, as well as credit and “marginal” wealth calculated under full repayment of obligations.The model is parametrized using empirical data and illustrated with numerical examples. The system’s behavior is studied based on initial values of real resources, liquidity, rates of return and money issuance, and average liability maturities. The model demonstrates that finance can indeed multiply social wealth, thereby enhancing the efficiency of money transformation into capital (real resources). Excess liquidity in the financial market can coexist with a deficit in the real segment of the money market, and vice versa. The intersection of surfaces representing general and financial wealth indices corresponds to a state of “money neutrality” characterized by zero growth in real resources. Different combinations of interest rates and money emission ratios can lead to deviations from a balanced trajectory, potentially generating various critical phenomena, including resonance-like effects. The model allows for evaluating some negative consequences of financialization, such as the appearance of a “hump” on the surface of long- term liabilities caused by excessive borrowing.
本文提出了一个综合宏观金融体系的紧凑模型,它代表了货币、债务和财富的动态。亚里士多德观察到这些经济指标的矛盾性质,这在全球金融化的当前阶段也很明显,特别是在中央银行使用“递延”资产账户方面。在该模型中,宏观金融资产、负债和实际财富通过考虑货币的双重属性来实现平衡,货币被定义为“递延”或当前支付的标准。货币市场的金融部门和实体部门之间的流动性流通将真实财富的积累与宏观债务的形成联系起来,这些债务代表着预期但未实现的财富。在模型中,金融合约的数量是通过系统的特征时间来衡量的,特征时间决定了债务的偿还日期。由于金融子系统不生产有形商品,财富积累发生在总实际市场中。货币、债务和财富的动态使用逻辑常微分方程建模,产生三维曲面,表示宏观金融指标,如总财富、金融财富和实际财富,以及在完全偿还义务的情况下计算的信贷和“边际”财富。利用经验数据对模型进行了参数化,并用数值算例进行了说明。系统的行为是基于实际资源的初始值,流动性,回报率和货币发行量,以及平均负债到期日。该模型表明,金融确实可以使社会财富倍增,从而提高货币转化为资本(实物资源)的效率。金融市场的流动性过剩可以与货币市场实体部分的流动性不足共存,反之亦然。代表一般财富指数和金融财富指数的曲面的交集对应于以实际资源零增长为特征的“货币中性”状态。利率和货币投放率的不同组合可能导致偏离平衡轨迹,可能产生各种关键现象,包括共振效应。该模型允许评估金融化的一些负面后果,例如过度借贷导致的长期负债表面出现“驼峰”。
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引用次数: 0
On the Stochastic Forecasting in the Deterministic Model of the Russian Banking System 俄罗斯银行体系确定性模型中的随机预测
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-1-33-48
S. Radionov
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of Central Counterparty Risk Assessment Approaches 中央交易对手风险评估方法的比较
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-196-219
A. Potapov, M. Kurbangaleev
The exchange uses statistical risk models to estimate derivatives' margin requirements. These models may use rough simplifications to speed up and simplify the calculation of margin requirements for open positions. Such simplifications include: limitation of the set of risk factors taken into account, use of simple distribution functions and assumption of zero or fixed correlation between risk factors. The paper assesses the impact of these simplifications on the assignned margin level. To achieve this, several models of varying complexity have been built to esti­mate the risk of positions in futures and options. The list of models includes those used in practice (the Moscow Exchange model, the Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk), as well as stochastic ones. The confidence level of the models’ results measured by the share of realized losses exceeding the level of margin requirements. The burden on the exchange participants estimated by using different models and compared by the distribution and the average value of the margin requirements. The results of the study show that simplifications proposed in practice can lead to an underestimation of the risk of changes in the value of instruments, not allowed by Principle 7 of paragraph 3 of the CPSS - IOSCO 2012. No systematic underestimation occurs when using the stochastic model, consideration of the correlation of risk factors in this case is critical. It is also found that, in average, margin estimates based on the stochastic model lower than those of the Moscow Exchange, which can be interpreted as a lower burden on the exchange's clients.
该交易所使用统计风险模型来估计衍生品的保证金要求。这些模型可以使用粗略的简化来加速和简化未平仓头寸保证金要求的计算。这种简化包括:限制所考虑的风险因素的集合,使用简单的分布函数和假设风险因素之间为零或固定相关。本文评估了这些简化对指定保证金水平的影响。为了实现这一目标,已经建立了几个不同复杂程度的模型来估计期货和期权头寸的风险。模型列表包括那些在实践中使用的模型(莫斯科交易所模型,风险的标准投资组合分析),以及随机模型。模型结果的置信水平,用已实现损失的份额超过保证金要求的水平来衡量。采用不同的模型对交易所参与者的负担进行了估计,并通过保证金要求的分布和平均值进行了比较。研究结果表明,在实践中提出的简化可能导致对工具价值变化风险的低估,这是CPSS - IOSCO 2012第3段原则7所不允许的。当使用随机模型时,不会出现系统的低估,在这种情况下,考虑风险因素的相关性是至关重要的。研究还发现,平均而言,基于随机模型的保证金估计低于莫斯科交易所的保证金估计,这可以解释为交易所客户的负担较低。
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引用次数: 0
Income Inequality and Natural Resource Endowment in the Russia's Regions 俄罗斯地区收入不平等与自然资源禀赋
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-220-247
T. Ivakhnenko
This article evaluates the impact of natural resources on income inequality in the Russia’s regions using the relative indicator of natural resource endowment - the share of the extractive sector in the GVA of the region, which is interpreted as a dependence of the region's economy on the extraction of natural resources. The results of the evaluation of panel models with region and time fixed effects show that there was a nonlinear relationship between natural resource endowment and within-region income inequality in 79 Russia’s regions for the period 2004-2020: natural resources contributed to the mitigation of income inequality when their share in the structure of the economy was less than 30%, but with further growth of the resource sector, the effect changed to the opposite. Estimates from the subsamples showed that for 10 regions where the average share of employment in the extractive sector for the period exceeded 4%, natural resources contributed to the growth of income inequality. The probable reason for this result is the polarization of the labor market in resource-rich regions. At the same time, for the remaining 69 regions, the effect of natural resource endowment was significant and negative for income inequality. For groups of regions engaged in the extraction of certain types of resour­ces - coal, oil and gas, metal ores, a nonlinear effect was maintained. Thus, we can talk about the mitigating effect of natural resources for income inequality in those regions where the economy is not heavily dependent on the resource extraction. The results of the study can be used to deve­lop economic policy in different regions of Russia.
本文利用自然资源禀赋的相对指标——采掘业在该地区GVA中的份额——来评估自然资源对俄罗斯各地区收入不平等的影响,该指标被解释为该地区经济对自然资源开采的依赖程度。具有区域固定效应和时间固定效应的面板模型的评价结果表明,2004-2020年期间,俄罗斯79个地区的自然资源禀赋与地区内收入不平等之间存在非线性关系:当自然资源在经济结构中的份额低于30%时,自然资源有助于缓解收入不平等,但随着资源部门的进一步增长,这种作用变为相反。子样本的估计表明,在10个地区,采掘业的平均就业份额在这一时期超过了4%,自然资源加剧了收入不平等。造成这种结果的原因可能是资源丰富地区的劳动力市场两极分化。同时,对于其余69个地区,自然资源禀赋对收入不平等的影响显著且为负。对于从事开采某些类型资源- -煤、石油和天然气、金属矿石- -的区域集团来说,保持着非线性效应。因此,我们可以讨论在那些经济不严重依赖资源开采的地区,自然资源对收入不平等的缓解作用。研究结果可用于制定俄罗斯不同地区的经济政策。
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引用次数: 0
About Scientometric Rankings and Journal BACchanalia 关于科学计量学排名和酒神杂志
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-290-305
A. Rubinstein
The article presents the results of historical and methodological research into the formation of special lists of economic journals of RSCI and VAK, and a comparative analysis of these lists. It is shown that each of them is based on Scientometric indicators and almost identical methods of calculating journal rankings. However, the goals pursued, and the nature of such lists are quite different: in one case the journal lists of RSCI are strictly informative in nature, in the other case they are formed by the Ministry of Education and Science and the Higher Attestation Commission as an obligatory norm for candidates for a Ph. At the same time, the widely divergent results of the ranking of journals raise the most serious doubts about their adequacy to scientific realities. It is shown that these doubts relate to the correctness of the information resource application: an unreasonably expansive interpretation of the indicators themselves and, most im­portantly, the use of a combination of objective Scientometric indicators and subjective expert evaluations when constructing the rankings. It is not an easy task to combine two different types of information in a single integral rating. Its solution, first of all, requires the involvement of competent and independent experts. Perhaps an open democratic procedure of selecting such a group of experts or defining a representative sample from a large array of specialists is needed. It is necessary to use an adequate algorithm of aggregation of two different types of information. Arbitrary selection of weights is simply unacceptable here. One of the final conclusions of the article is related to the recommendation to abolish VAK requirements to any journal lists or to transfer these functions to their own Academic Councils of universities and academic institutions.
本文介绍了RSCI和VAK经济期刊专题目录形成的历史和方法研究结果,并对这些目录进行了比较分析。结果表明,它们都是基于科学计量指标和几乎相同的计算期刊排名的方法。然而,RSCI所追求的目标和这些列表的性质是完全不同的:在一种情况下,RSCI的期刊列表在本质上是严格提供信息的,在另一种情况下,它们是由教育和科学部和高等认证委员会组成的,作为博士候选人的强制性规范。与此同时,期刊排名结果的巨大差异引起了对其是否足以满足科学现实的最严重质疑。研究表明,这些疑虑与信息资源应用的正确性有关:对指标本身的不合理的广泛解释,以及最重要的是,在构建排名时使用客观科学计量指标和主观专家评估的组合。将两种不同类型的信息合并到一个积分评级中并不是一件容易的事。它的解决首先需要有能力和独立的专家的参与。也许需要一个公开的民主程序来选择这样一组专家或从众多专家中确定一个具有代表性的样本。有必要使用一种适当的算法来聚合两种不同类型的信息。在这里,任意选择权重是不可接受的。这篇文章的最后结论之一是关于建议取消对任何期刊清单的VAK要求,或将这些职能移交给它们自己的大学和学术机构的学术委员会。
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引用次数: 0
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HSE Economic Journal
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