ON QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURAL PROJECTS WITH STATE PARTICIPATION

IF 0.2 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Voprosy Gosudarstvennogo i Munitsipalnogo Upravleniya-Public Administration Issues Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.17323/1999-5431-2022-0-4-30-60

I. Belyakov

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Abstract

International experience shows that creating large infrastructure objects (as a rule, with state participation) is often accompanied by significant cost overruns. Importance of this issue is especially high due to responsibility for the use of public resources. The article reviews most recognized methods of the project risks evaluation that play a key role in assessing the total cost of large and long-term projects. Approaches of international organizations, official documents of selected developed countries and requirements for Russian infrastructure projects with state funding are compared. Particular attention is paid to a comprehensive quantitative risk evaluation, which is not sufficiently represented in the Russian official methodology, based on Monte-Carlo simulation modelling. The study considers some practical aspects of applying this method for conditional cost estimation. As an illustration, a model calculation of the impact of risks on the indicators of one of the latest PPP infrastructure projects (CRR-1) is given.

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国家参与基础设施项目风险定量评估研究

国际经验表明，建造大型基础设施项目(通常是由国家参与)往往伴随着严重的成本超支。由于对公共资源的使用负有责任，这个问题的重要性特别高。本文综述了在大型和长期项目总成本评估中发挥关键作用的项目风险评估方法。比较了国际组织的做法、选定的发达国家的官方文件以及俄罗斯国家资助基础设施项目的要求。特别注意以蒙特卡罗模拟模式为基础的全面定量风险评价，这在俄罗斯官方方法中没有充分体现。研究考虑了应用该方法进行条件成本估算的一些实际问题。本文以一个最新PPP基础设施项目(CRR-1)为例，给出了风险对指标影响的模型计算。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Voprosy Gosudarstvennogo i Munitsipalnogo Upravleniya-Public Administration Issues PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION-

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

33.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ISSUES is a scientific peer-reviewed journal published by the National Research University High School of Economics (NRU HSE).The journal is published quarterly in Russian, and contains original articles by Russian and foreign authors. In addition, a special English language issue containing original articles by Russian and foreign authors has been published since 2014. The editorial board consists of leading Russian and foreign scientists in the field of public administration as well as prominent practitioners. The journal is indexed in the international databases: Scopus, RePEc, EBSCOand the Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI) on the platform of Web of Science. In addition, the journal is on the list of key peer-reviewed scientific journals and publications that the Higher Certification (Attestation) Commission in the RF Education Ministry recommends for publishing the main scientific results of theses for PhD and doctoral degrees in Economics, Sociology and Law. The journal focuses on the following subject areas: − Current theories of public administration. − Theoretical fundamentals of economic and social policy − Factors and Assessment of efficiency in public and municipal administration. − Innovations in the system of public and municipal administration. − Planning and forecasting in the system of public and municipal administration. − Staff of the state and municipal service. Management of personnel in public and municipal bodies and in organizations of the public sectors. − Financial, logistical and information resources of the state and municipalities. − Public service. − Functional features of public sector organizations. − Partnership of the state and municipalities with nongovernmental nonprofit organizations. Economic and administrative challenges facing “third sector.” - Development of education programs on public administration.