Dinâmica da difusão de inovações no contexto brasileiro

Abstract

Innovation and diffusion are imbricated concepts. Understanding diffusion of innovations means advancing knowledge about technological progress. There is in the literature the understanding that diffusion is context-dependent. The objective of this paper was to analyze the innovations diffusion in Brazil, considering their socioeconomic particularities. With consumption data collected from a national survey (PNAD) for six products in different periods, diffusion curves were estimated from Rogers (1962) and coefficients calculated according to Bass (1969). The main results were: 1) the model was useful for the diffusion analysis in Brazil, stating that Rogers and Bass are relevant theories also for this context; 2) the diffusion of the products investigated is in different stages in this economy, and is, essentially, an imitation process; and 3) should be considered the diffusion peculiarities for the Brazilian economy, since there seems to be endogenous factors that make it differentiated.