{"title":"Are fiscal deficits inflationary in Nigeria? New evidence from bounds testing to cointegration with structural breaks","authors":"Ismail Fasanya, A. Fajobi, A. Adetokunbo","doi":"10.2298/EKA2128123F","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we model the relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation for Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2016. We employ the linear ARDL approach and account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models. The paper finds that the fiscal deficit is a major determinant of inflation along with other macroeconomic factors considered in the study. However, we observe that it may be necessary to pretest for structural breaks when modelling the relationship between the fiscal deficit and the price level, as it performs better than when structural events are not considered. The results imply that a fiscal management process that does not encourage increased revenue and reduce fiscal deficits will further worsen the level of inflation in the country.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic Annals","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2298/EKA2128123F","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Abstract
In this paper, we model the relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation for Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2016. We employ the linear ARDL approach and account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models. The paper finds that the fiscal deficit is a major determinant of inflation along with other macroeconomic factors considered in the study. However, we observe that it may be necessary to pretest for structural breaks when modelling the relationship between the fiscal deficit and the price level, as it performs better than when structural events are not considered. The results imply that a fiscal management process that does not encourage increased revenue and reduce fiscal deficits will further worsen the level of inflation in the country.
Economic AnnalsEconomics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
CiteScore
0.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
6
审稿时长
18 weeks
期刊介绍：
Economic Annals is an academic journal that has been published on a quarterly basis since 1955, initially under its Serbian name of Ekonomski anali (EconLit). Since 2006 it has been published exclusively in English. It is published by the Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Serbia. The journal publishes research in all areas of economics. The Editorial Board welcomes contributions that explore economic issues in a comparative perspective with a focus on transition and emerging economies in Europe and around the world. The journal encourages the submission of original unpublished works, not under consideration by other journals or publications. All submitted papers undergo a double blind refereeing process. Authors are expected to follow standard publication procedures [Instructions to Authors], to recognise the values of the international academic community and to respect the journal’s Policy.
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