We investigate post-communist redistributive policies in Serbia, focusing particularly on the period after 2000. Our main argument is that market fundamentalism, which posits that the market is the most efficient solution for the postcommunist transition, has failed to deliver on its promises. The expectation was that, after a temporary transitional sacrifice, the worse-off would benefit equally with the better-off by reaping the rewards of market economic reforms. The anticipated faster growth was supposed to generate more quality jobs as the most effective means to alleviate poverty. Unfortunately, growth has been sluggish, while inequalities in Serbia have experienced rapid and persistent growth since 2000. We look into redistributive reform measures to understand the reasons behind this outcome. Our approach combines applied political philosophy with economic policy analysis - a unique intersection of two social science disciplines. Firstly, our research explores the implicit and explicit normative foundations of postcommunist economic reforms. Secondly, we identify and analyse a pivotal juncture of policy reform in the early 2000s. During this period, the newly-adopted neoliberal taxation and social policies were combined with class- and ethnic-based discriminatory approaches inherited from the pre-1990s socialist era and the post-socialist 1990s, respectively. This combination resulted in distinct, notably pro-rich redistributive patterns in Serbia.
{"title":"Egalitarianism and redistributive reform in Serbia after 2000","authors":"Mihail Arandarenko, D. Pavlović","doi":"10.2298/eka2337007p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2337007p","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate post-communist redistributive policies in Serbia, focusing particularly on the period after 2000. Our main argument is that market fundamentalism, which posits that the market is the most efficient solution for the postcommunist transition, has failed to deliver on its promises. The expectation was that, after a temporary transitional sacrifice, the worse-off would benefit equally with the better-off by reaping the rewards of market economic reforms. The anticipated faster growth was supposed to generate more quality jobs as the most effective means to alleviate poverty. Unfortunately, growth has been sluggish, while inequalities in Serbia have experienced rapid and persistent growth since 2000. We look into redistributive reform measures to understand the reasons behind this outcome. Our approach combines applied political philosophy with economic policy analysis - a unique intersection of two social science disciplines. Firstly, our research explores the implicit and explicit normative foundations of postcommunist economic reforms. Secondly, we identify and analyse a pivotal juncture of policy reform in the early 2000s. During this period, the newly-adopted neoliberal taxation and social policies were combined with class- and ethnic-based discriminatory approaches inherited from the pre-1990s socialist era and the post-socialist 1990s, respectively. This combination resulted in distinct, notably pro-rich redistributive patterns in Serbia.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Over the past several decades there has been increasing competition among countries to attract foreign direct investment, which is often hypothesised to positively affect the development of host countries. Bilateral investment treaties are one of the policy instruments the host countries often use as a means to encourage foreign direct investment inflows. In this study, we aim to explore the effectiveness of bilateral investment treaties in achieving these goals in the case of Serbia. Using the panel data on Serbia and its 198 partner economies observed in the period 2010-2019, we estimate a gravity model of foreign direct investment inflows by applying the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method. We found that ratified bilateral investment treaties have a statistically significant positive effect on foreign direct investment inflows in Serbia. Furthermore, the quality of the treaties was found to positively affect the inflows, whereby the anti-discriminatory provisions seem to be the most important. The results imply that Serbia could attract more foreign direct investment by concluding new bilateral investment treaties and improving the quality of the existing ones.
{"title":"The effectiveness of bilateral investment treaties in attracting foreign direct investment: The case of Serbia","authors":"Radovan Kastratović, Predrag Bjelić","doi":"10.2298/eka2337037k","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2337037k","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past several decades there has been increasing competition among countries to attract foreign direct investment, which is often hypothesised to positively affect the development of host countries. Bilateral investment treaties are one of the policy instruments the host countries often use as a means to encourage foreign direct investment inflows. In this study, we aim to explore the effectiveness of bilateral investment treaties in achieving these goals in the case of Serbia. Using the panel data on Serbia and its 198 partner economies observed in the period 2010-2019, we estimate a gravity model of foreign direct investment inflows by applying the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method. We found that ratified bilateral investment treaties have a statistically significant positive effect on foreign direct investment inflows in Serbia. Furthermore, the quality of the treaties was found to positively affect the inflows, whereby the anti-discriminatory provisions seem to be the most important. The results imply that Serbia could attract more foreign direct investment by concluding new bilateral investment treaties and improving the quality of the existing ones.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we explore the nexus between remittances and Nigeria?s economic growth over the period 1996 to 2020 from the perspective of financial inclusion (FI). The fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and Granger (1969) causality methodologies were employed. The findings of the FMOLS show that the increasing flow of remittances can significantly contribute to the growth of the Nigerian economy. Also, the interaction of financial inclusion and remittances has a significant impact on the country?s development. The study concludes that the interaction of remittances with the measures of financial inclusion will lead to economic growth at a faster rate than when there is no interaction with financial inclusion. Using the Granger causality test, the study revealed that the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth is a unidirectional one. It shows that the impact of financial inclusion on growth is conditional on remittances. Therefore, Nigeria?s authorities need to work to strengthen all existing institutional weaknesses that allow questionable transactions in financial markets and to promote a more inclusive financial sector that will reduce the number of unbanked individuals in the country.
{"title":"Modelling the influence of financial inclusion on the remittance growth nexus in Nigeria","authors":"J. Ogede, Musa Oduola, O. Yinusa, L. Raimi","doi":"10.2298/eka2337137s","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2337137s","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we explore the nexus between remittances and Nigeria?s economic growth over the period 1996 to 2020 from the perspective of financial inclusion (FI). The fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and Granger (1969) causality methodologies were employed. The findings of the FMOLS show that the increasing flow of remittances can significantly contribute to the growth of the Nigerian economy. Also, the interaction of financial inclusion and remittances has a significant impact on the country?s development. The study concludes that the interaction of remittances with the measures of financial inclusion will lead to economic growth at a faster rate than when there is no interaction with financial inclusion. Using the Granger causality test, the study revealed that the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth is a unidirectional one. It shows that the impact of financial inclusion on growth is conditional on remittances. Therefore, Nigeria?s authorities need to work to strengthen all existing institutional weaknesses that allow questionable transactions in financial markets and to promote a more inclusive financial sector that will reduce the number of unbanked individuals in the country.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This essay aims to promote discussion on fundamental reforms of the European Union (EU). Its thesis is that the global turning point triggered by multiple crises affects the entirety of the EU architecture and that reforms can therefore not be limited to piecemeal reforms in individual areas. Methodologically, the essay takes an ideology-critical approach with what is commonly referred to as ?neoliberalism? at its centre. As a result, the essay draws a Union that gains its own sovereignty through democratic reforms in decisionmaking.
{"title":"In the maelstrom of crises: The European Union and the ‘Zeitenwende’","authors":"Hubert Gabrisch","doi":"10.2298/eka2336007g","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2336007g","url":null,"abstract":"This essay aims to promote discussion on fundamental reforms of the European Union (EU). Its thesis is that the global turning point triggered by multiple crises affects the entirety of the EU architecture and that reforms can therefore not be limited to piecemeal reforms in individual areas. Methodologically, the essay takes an ideology-critical approach with what is commonly referred to as ?neoliberalism? at its centre. As a result, the essay draws a Union that gains its own sovereignty through democratic reforms in decisionmaking.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The phenomenon known as sunspots refers to regions of the Sun?s photosphere that are darker than their surroundings because their surface temperature is lower. The sunspot growth theory, however debatable, is one of the first explanations for economic development that explains how variations in the Sun?s activity affect the business cycle. Jevons developed the sunspot hypothesis in 1875. To reevaluate this notion, this research uses correlation and regression analysis to explore the relationship between sunspots and GDP in the context of 11 Balkan nations over the years 1960-2021. By extending the sample of nations in panel regression models to include all nations on Earth, further robustness testing is accomplished. It was found that there exist significantly negative medium strength correlations between sunspots and gross domestic product values of 8 out of 11 Balkan countries. Similar findings were obtained using simple linear regression analysis. The results of the cross-country panel regression models further highlight the negative impact of solar activity on economic activity, which is also associated with nations that are located at higher latitudes.
{"title":"Investigation of the sunspots and GDP nexus: The case of Balkan countries","authors":"Berislav Žmuk, Hrvoje Jošić","doi":"10.2298/eka2337069z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2337069z","url":null,"abstract":"The phenomenon known as sunspots refers to regions of the Sun?s photosphere that are darker than their surroundings because their surface temperature is lower. The sunspot growth theory, however debatable, is one of the first explanations for economic development that explains how variations in the Sun?s activity affect the business cycle. Jevons developed the sunspot hypothesis in 1875. To reevaluate this notion, this research uses correlation and regression analysis to explore the relationship between sunspots and GDP in the context of 11 Balkan nations over the years 1960-2021. By extending the sample of nations in panel regression models to include all nations on Earth, further robustness testing is accomplished. It was found that there exist significantly negative medium strength correlations between sunspots and gross domestic product values of 8 out of 11 Balkan countries. Similar findings were obtained using simple linear regression analysis. The results of the cross-country panel regression models further highlight the negative impact of solar activity on economic activity, which is also associated with nations that are located at higher latitudes.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study examines the absorptive role of financial development in the remittance-growth nexus in Nigeria between 1986-2017. In particular, the shortrun, long-run, and causal links between remittances, financial development, and economic growth in Nigeria are investigated using an autoregressive distributed lag bounds test and vector error correction Granger causality. The result shows that financial development and remittances contribute positively to economic growth. Furthermore, findings from the moderating role suggest that financial development and remittances serve as substitutes to affect growth in the short run; however, financial development and remittances perform a complementary role in influencing economic growth in the long run. In addition, the causality tests indicate a one-way relationship from economic growth to financial development as well as bidirectional causality between remittances and financial development in the short run, while financial development and remittances Granger cause economic growth in the long run. The outcome of this study suggests there are time lags in the relationship between remittances, financial development, and economic growth in Nigeria. The implications of the findings are discussed.
{"title":"Remittances-finance-growth trilogy: Do remittance and financial development complement or substitute each other to affect growth in Nigeria?","authors":"J. Dada, T. Akinlo","doi":"10.2298/eka2336105d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2336105d","url":null,"abstract":"The study examines the absorptive role of financial development in the remittance-growth nexus in Nigeria between 1986-2017. In particular, the shortrun, long-run, and causal links between remittances, financial development, and economic growth in Nigeria are investigated using an autoregressive distributed lag bounds test and vector error correction Granger causality. The result shows that financial development and remittances contribute positively to economic growth. Furthermore, findings from the moderating role suggest that financial development and remittances serve as substitutes to affect growth in the short run; however, financial development and remittances perform a complementary role in influencing economic growth in the long run. In addition, the causality tests indicate a one-way relationship from economic growth to financial development as well as bidirectional causality between remittances and financial development in the short run, while financial development and remittances Granger cause economic growth in the long run. The outcome of this study suggests there are time lags in the relationship between remittances, financial development, and economic growth in Nigeria. The implications of the findings are discussed.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Motivated by swings in the exchange rate of many developing economies which exert influence on firms? input costs, output, stock prices, and profits, the study investigated the asymmetric reactions of stock prices and industrial output to various shocks in the exchange rate in Nigeria using a multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model and high frequency series from January 1999 to December 2021. Empirical results suggest that stock prices and industrial output react asymmetrically in the opposite direction to exchange rate depreciation. It further indicates that the reactions of both stock prices and industrial output to exchange rate changes are sensitive to the size of shocks. Exchange rate shocks above the 25th percentile significantly and inversely affect both stock prices and industrial output, and the effects of exchange rate shocks on stock prices and industrial output become pernicious if above the 75th percentile. The main economic implication of the empirical finding is that in the upper quantile, both exchange rate depreciation and appreciation hurt industrial output, and hence, stock values. Thus, the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag results suggest that the reactions of both stock prices and industrial output to exchange rate changes are highly sensitive to the extent of the shocks.
{"title":"Asymmetric reactions of stock prices and industrial output to exchange rate shocks: Multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag framework","authors":"J. Odionye, J. Chukwu","doi":"10.2298/eka2337165c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2337165c","url":null,"abstract":"Motivated by swings in the exchange rate of many developing economies which exert influence on firms? input costs, output, stock prices, and profits, the study investigated the asymmetric reactions of stock prices and industrial output to various shocks in the exchange rate in Nigeria using a multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model and high frequency series from January 1999 to December 2021. Empirical results suggest that stock prices and industrial output react asymmetrically in the opposite direction to exchange rate depreciation. It further indicates that the reactions of both stock prices and industrial output to exchange rate changes are sensitive to the size of shocks. Exchange rate shocks above the 25th percentile significantly and inversely affect both stock prices and industrial output, and the effects of exchange rate shocks on stock prices and industrial output become pernicious if above the 75th percentile. The main economic implication of the empirical finding is that in the upper quantile, both exchange rate depreciation and appreciation hurt industrial output, and hence, stock values. Thus, the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag results suggest that the reactions of both stock prices and industrial output to exchange rate changes are highly sensitive to the extent of the shocks.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The body of literature on the nexus concerning innovation, the development of financial systems, and economic growth has gained increasing attention in recent times. However, it is observed that the majority of studies are conducted in developed and emerging economies. This study is unique in its own right by exploring the effect of innovation and financial development on economic growth using panel data for 30 sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 2001-2018. The study employed symmetric panel ARDL, common correlated effect ARDL, and asymmetric panel ARDL. Our empirical findings revealed a long-run effect of innovation and financial development on the economic growth of SSA. This means that expansion of the financial sector and better innovation activities in SSA stimulate long-term economic growth. Robustness tests provided consistent results with the baseline findings. The study therefore recommends that to promote sustained economic growth and development in the region, policy makers must collectively work in close collaboration with relevant stakeholders in enhancing regional financial reforms and innovative activities.
{"title":"Financial development and innovationled economic growth: Empirical insight from sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"A. Jibir, H. Zada, M. Abdu, N. Khan","doi":"10.2298/eka2337097j","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2337097j","url":null,"abstract":"The body of literature on the nexus concerning innovation, the development of financial systems, and economic growth has gained increasing attention in recent times. However, it is observed that the majority of studies are conducted in developed and emerging economies. This study is unique in its own right by exploring the effect of innovation and financial development on economic growth using panel data for 30 sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 2001-2018. The study employed symmetric panel ARDL, common correlated effect ARDL, and asymmetric panel ARDL. Our empirical findings revealed a long-run effect of innovation and financial development on the economic growth of SSA. This means that expansion of the financial sector and better innovation activities in SSA stimulate long-term economic growth. Robustness tests provided consistent results with the baseline findings. The study therefore recommends that to promote sustained economic growth and development in the region, policy makers must collectively work in close collaboration with relevant stakeholders in enhancing regional financial reforms and innovative activities.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we provide a bibliometric overview of publications in economics by authors with affiliations from Serbia. We use the Web of Science database, analyse all the articles published from 1996 onwards, and provide an overview of publications, journals targeted, trends, and the effects of collaboration. We identify the main topics of interest of the published papers. To do this, we use bibliographic mapping and provide the most common terms used in the titles and abstracts of the papers, grouped in clusters. Using these clusters, we present the main interests and focus of the papers in the dataset. The robustness of the conclusions is obtained by extending the analysis to another citation database, the SCImago Journal Rank.
在本文中，我们提供了一个文献计量的概述，作者在经济学与隶属关系从塞尔维亚。我们使用Web of Science数据库，分析1996年以来发表的所有文章，并提供出版物、目标期刊、趋势和合作效果的概述。我们确定了已发表论文的主要兴趣主题。为了做到这一点，我们使用书目映射，并提供论文标题和摘要中最常用的术语，分组在集群中。使用这些聚类，我们展示了数据集中论文的主要兴趣和焦点。结论的稳健性是通过将分析扩展到另一个引文数据库SCImago Journal Rank来获得的。
{"title":"Where did all the papers go? A bibliometric overview of publications in economics from Serbia","authors":"M. Stamenkovic","doi":"10.2298/eka2336029s","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2336029s","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we provide a bibliometric overview of publications in economics by authors with affiliations from Serbia. We use the Web of Science database, analyse all the articles published from 1996 onwards, and provide an overview of publications, journals targeted, trends, and the effects of collaboration. We identify the main topics of interest of the published papers. To do this, we use bibliographic mapping and provide the most common terms used in the titles and abstracts of the papers, grouped in clusters. Using these clusters, we present the main interests and focus of the papers in the dataset. The robustness of the conclusions is obtained by extending the analysis to another citation database, the SCImago Journal Rank.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kingsley Imandojemu, Bosede Ngozi Adeleye, Babatunde Aina
This paper contributes to the monetary policy-economic growth debate by investigating whether monetary policy stimulates economic growth in Nigeria. Using time series data from 1970 to 2018 and deploying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, bounds and the Bayer- Hanck (2013) cointegration tests, evidence from the main and robustness checks show that (1) a significant long-run association exists, and (2) a percentage increase in the monetary policy rate results in 0.055 percentage decline in economic growth, on average, ceteris paribus. In other words, these findings confirm that a statistically significant inverse relation exists between monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria. Trade openness also exerts asymmetric contemporaneous (0.094) and lag (-0.059) impacts on economic growth at the 1% and 5% significance levels, respectively. Similarly, the inflation rate contemporaneously reduces economic growth (-0.002) at the 1% significance level while its lag impacts are asymmetric and statistically significant at the 10% and 5% levels, respectively. Policy recommendations are discussed.
{"title":"Monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from bounds and Bayer-Hanck cointegration techniques","authors":"Kingsley Imandojemu, Bosede Ngozi Adeleye, Babatunde Aina","doi":"10.2298/eka2336081i","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2336081i","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contributes to the monetary policy-economic growth debate by investigating whether monetary policy stimulates economic growth in Nigeria. Using time series data from 1970 to 2018 and deploying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, bounds and the Bayer- Hanck (2013) cointegration tests, evidence from the main and robustness checks show that (1) a significant long-run association exists, and (2) a percentage increase in the monetary policy rate results in 0.055 percentage decline in economic growth, on average, ceteris paribus. In other words, these findings confirm that a statistically significant inverse relation exists between monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria. Trade openness also exerts asymmetric contemporaneous (0.094) and lag (-0.059) impacts on economic growth at the 1% and 5% significance levels, respectively. Similarly, the inflation rate contemporaneously reduces economic growth (-0.002) at the 1% significance level while its lag impacts are asymmetric and statistically significant at the 10% and 5% levels, respectively. Policy recommendations are discussed.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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