Analyzing the Transformation of China’s First Marriage Pattern Using Nuptiality Tables

Abstract

Using data from several censuses in China, including the newly released 2010 data, this study constructs net nuptiality tables as an analytical instrument to descriptively analyse the shape of China’s first marriage pattern from 1982 to 2010, including the age-specific probabilities of first marriage, the percentage of remaining single by age, and number of years remaining single by age for both males and females. Our analysis reveals that while age-specific probabilities of first marriage have significantly declined for females during the past three decades, such probabilities for males have declined much less. The percentage remaining single below age 30 has increased up to 2010. At age 50 the proportion is 4.6 percent for males, while that for females is just one percent. Patterns of singlehood have also changed at younger ages, with an ever increasing period of singlehood, especially for males.