Macroeconomic model of safe functioning of the national economy of Azerbaijan in the long-term period

Abstract

In the 90s of the twentieth century, due to the formation of new independent states in the post-Soviet space, as well as a change in the constitutional foundations of Eastern European countries, the governments of the countries were faced with the task of ensuring economic security of the countries.In the scientific literature, there are three main paradigms for solving the problem of the country’s  economic security: the paradigm of the country’s national interests; the paradigm of independent and independent development of the national economy; paradigm of sustainable development of the national economy. The economic system of the country, with its characteristic mechanism, operates in a cyclical mode, consisting of four stages: development, slowdown in development and stagnation (crisis), recession and depression, stabilization. It is necessary to have a toolkit (methodology), allowing one to foresee the onset and completion of all stages of the functioning cycle, the lead-time of more than 30 years. The structural and conjuncture equation of the country’s economy functioning cycle in the long-term period, with a leadtime of more than 30 years, can be used to determine the time of occurrence of economic threats in the national economy. The basis of the macroeconomic model of safe functional organization of the national economy of the country has been laid the equation of the cyclic functioning of the national economy, as a dynamic system, developed by the author, the equation of the cyclic functioning of the national economy of the country on the long-term period. Based on the equation of the cyclical functioning of the national economy of Azerbaijan, the time of the beginning of the slowing down rate of development of the national economy of the Republic has been determined. Three basic conditions for the safe functioning of the national economy have been offered. Based on the method, developed by the author, the basic conditions for the safe functioning of the national economy of Azerbaijan have been determined.