Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to examine the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey for the quarterly data between 2003 and 2018. Besides, some policy implications are made to ensure the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey's economy. Design/methodology/approach: The dynamics related to the sustainability of the current account deficit is analysed within the framework of the "intertemporal budget constraint approach" developed by Husted (1992). The long-term dynamics are empirically investigated using the Johansen cointegration test. Econometric analysis is also expanded within the framework of the Vector Error Model to reveal the short-term dynamics. Findings: The results of Johansen cointegration analysis suggest that current account income and expenses are integrated with the cointegrating coefficient less than 1, implying that Turkey has a weak form of current account deficit sustainability. Findings of the Vector Error Correction model confirm the results of long-run analysis and indicates that the deviations from the long-term equilibrium are corrected at a rate of 78% every quarter term. Research limitations/implications: The "intertemporal budget constraint approach" developed by Husted (1992) focuses on the equilibrium between current account income and expenses to analyse the sustainability of the foreign balance. However, the sustainability of the foreign deficit is also closely related to what kind of capital inflows is used to finance the foreign deficit. Therefore, the implications made regarding the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey based on the Husted model should be accepted with some reservations. Originality/value: Since external imbalances are a key challenge for most of the developing countries to provide full integration into the world economy, many empirical studies are examining the current account sustainability. The majority of these studies focus on the long-run dynamics of the current account imbalances. Unlike most of the previous studies, this paper also focuses on the short-run dynamics of the current account balance. Thus, the difference of this study from other studies stems from the examination of the dynamics of current account sustainability not only in the long term but also in the short term.