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The Effect of the Movement in 52-Week High on Momentum Profit: The Evidence from Taiwan 52周高点变动对动量利润的影响:来自台湾的证据
Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.161.07
Li-Chuan Liao, Tzu-Pu Chang, Ping-Huang Wang
Purpose: This paper aims to examine the impact of price movements in 52-week highs on a 52-week high momentum strategy. This study refers to the upward or downward movement in 52- week highs as an updating effect and determines how this effect influences the profitability of the original 52-week high momentum strategy. Design/methodology/approach: This paper decomposes the ratio of stock price to 52-week high into denoted two components: price change and updating components. We construct two momentum strategies, each focusing on adjusting either the price change or the updating component. Additionally, we employ a portfolio approach and Fama-MacBeth regression analysis to investigate the profitability of each proposed momentum strategy. Findings: The empirical results reveal that removing the price change component (updating component) from the original 52-week high measure can increases (decreases) the momentum profit, implying that the updating component dominates the price change component. Moreover, our analysis shows that when a high ratio of stock price to 52-week high is driven by a downward updating event, the subsequent positive momentum for a winner portfolio is more substantial. Research limitations/implications: This paper investigates the influence of 52-week highs movement on momentum strategies, utilizing data from Taiwan stock market. The findings reveal that accounting for the updating effect of 52-week highs can enhance the profitability of the original momentum strategy. However, it is important to note that this conclusion is currently limited to relatively inefficient stock markets. The impact on relatively efficient markets remains an area that requires further research for a comprehensive understanding. Originality/value: The finance literature widely acknowledges the 52-week high price as a reference point that can impact investors' trading psychology. Numerous empirical studies have confirmed the profitability of the 52-week high momentum investing strategy. However, these studies have not thoroughly explored the implications and effects of price movements within the scope of a 52-week high momentum strategy. Taking behavioral perspectives into account, this paper considers that the updating of 52-week high prices can influence investors' attention and subsequently impact the profitability of the momentum strategy.
目的:本文旨在研究52周高点价格变动对52周高动量策略的影响。本研究将52周高点的向上或向下运动视为一种更新效应,并确定这种效应如何影响原始52周高动量策略的盈利能力。设计/方法/途径:本文将股票价格与52周高点的比率分解为价格变动和更新两个组成部分。我们构建了两种动量策略,每一种策略都侧重于调整价格变化或更新成分。此外,我们采用投资组合方法和Fama-MacBeth回归分析来调查每个提议的动量策略的盈利能力。研究发现:实证结果表明,从原52周高位测度中剔除价格变动分量(更新分量)可以增加(减少)动量利润,表明更新分量主导价格变动分量。此外,我们的分析表明,当股价与52周高点的高比率是由向下更新事件驱动时,随后的赢家投资组合的积极势头更加强劲。研究局限与启示:本文以台湾股市为研究对象,探讨52周高点变动对动量策略的影响。研究结果表明,考虑52周高点的更新效应可以提高原始动量策略的盈利能力。然而,值得注意的是,这一结论目前仅限于相对低效的股票市场。对相对有效市场的影响仍然是一个需要进一步研究以全面理解的领域。原创性/价值:金融文献普遍认为52周高点是影响投资者交易心理的参考点。大量实证研究证实了52周高动量投资策略的盈利能力。然而,这些研究并没有彻底探讨52周高动量策略范围内价格变动的含义和影响。考虑到行为视角,本文认为52周高点的更新会影响投资者的注意力,进而影响动量策略的盈利能力。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Impact of Financial and non-Financial Motives on Employee Performance. A Survey of Indonesian Employees. 探讨财务动机和非财务动机对员工绩效的影响。对印尼雇员的调查。
Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.161.04
Maria Argyropoulou, Wynne Aprilia, Rachel Argyropoulou, Dionisia Tzavara
Purpose: Employees in any workplace around the world should feel motivated to achieve optimal results. Older and more recent research in this area demonstrates the importance of motivation to employee productivity and organizational performance. This research aims to determine not only the role of work motivation on employee performance but also the magnitude of its impact, both theoretically and practically. Design/methodology/approach: Quantitative data were gathered by using a questionnaire with 27 close-ended questions. Data was collected from 150 employees in Indonesia with at least one year of work experience. The analysis of this study is carried out with the program SPSS 26. Findings: The results of this study show a positive relationship between employee motivation and employee performance, which supports previous research findings and underscores the importance of motivation as an effective tool for today's managers who must respond to unprecedented challenges in a rapidly changing environment. The most important finding from this research is that financial awards is not a statistically significant predictor of employee performance which supports the theory that intrinsic rewards play the most important role in motivational strategy. Research limitations/implications: Data from respondents in Indonesia were used for this study. Further research in other international locations is needed to generalise the findings globally. The results of this research suggest that companies, especially those with a majority of employees between the ages of 18 and 29, should strengthen mutual relationships within the company, involve employees in the decision-making process, and provide more opportunities for career advancement, promotions, and employee participation to improve the performance of their employees. Originality/value: This study contributes to theory by going a step further and examining the impact of three specific factors on employee performance: financial factors, career aspirations, and mutual relationships.
目的:世界上任何工作场所的员工都应该有动力去实现最佳结果。这一领域较早和最近的研究表明,激励对员工生产力和组织绩效的重要性。本研究的目的不仅是确定工作动机对员工绩效的作用,而且从理论上和实践上确定其影响的程度。设计/方法/方法:采用27个封闭式问题的问卷收集定量数据。数据来自印度尼西亚150名至少有一年工作经验的员工。本研究的分析是用SPSS 26程序进行的。研究结果:本研究的结果显示了员工激励与员工绩效之间的正相关关系,这支持了之前的研究结果,并强调了激励作为当今管理者有效工具的重要性,他们必须在快速变化的环境中应对前所未有的挑战。本研究最重要的发现是,财务奖励并不是统计上显著的员工绩效预测指标,这支持了内在奖励在激励策略中发挥最重要作用的理论。研究局限性/意义:本研究使用了来自印度尼西亚受访者的数据。需要在其他国际地区进行进一步的研究,以在全球范围内推广这些发现。本研究的结果表明,公司,特别是那些员工年龄在18 - 29岁之间的公司,应该加强公司内部的相互关系,让员工参与决策过程,并提供更多的职业发展,晋升和员工参与的机会,以提高员工的绩效。原创性/价值:本研究进一步研究了三个具体因素对员工绩效的影响,这三个因素是:财务因素、职业抱负和相互关系。
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引用次数: 0
Parental Financial Socialisation and Financial Knowledge: A Structural Equation Modelling Analysis 父母金融社会化与金融知识:结构方程模型分析
Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.161.03
Adam Ndou
Purpose: The main aim of the study was to investigate the impact of parental financial socialisation on financial knowledge of young black African adults in rural and low-income area in South Africa. This study was guided by family financial socialisation theory which is cognisant of the various family characteristics, such as family size and socioeconomic status, as predictors of financial outcome through their association with family socialisation process. Design/methodology/approach: The study used quantitative approach and survey design. Primary data on parental financial socialisation was collected from structured questionnaires. A survey was carried out on 500 young black African adults in Fetakgomo Tubatse and Intsika Yethu municipalities. The research hypotheses were tested using structural equation modelling (SEM) analysis. Findings: The study found that parental financial behaviour, parental financial discussion, parental financial communication, and parental financial teaching had significant positive impact on financial knowledge. It is observed that parental financial communication had the strongest impact on financial knowledge. Parental financial monitoring had a significant negative impact on financial knowledge. Thus, the overall results showed that parental financial socialisation has an impact on financial knowledge of young black African adults in rural and low-income area in South Africa. Research limitations/implications: Due to the low levels of general literacy among the respondents, which negatively affected data collection; some young adults did not understand the questionnaire and withdrew from participating in the study. Furthermore, even though confidentiality and anonymity were guaranteed, respondents were reluctant to participate in the study. They feared exposing their financial position and displayed a lack of trust. Originality/value: The current study contributed to the body of knowledge differently to the previous studies because it focused on parental financial socialisation of young black African adults in rural and low-income area. There is no study which has been conducted on parental financial socialisation impact on financial knowledge in rural and low-income area in South Africa. This makes this study so important and warrant that it should be carried out to provide the much-needed results that could help to improve the level of financial knowledge of young black African adults.
目的:本研究的主要目的是调查父母金融社会化对南非农村和低收入地区年轻非洲黑人成年人金融知识的影响。本研究以家庭财务社会化理论为指导,该理论认识到各种家庭特征,如家庭规模和社会经济地位,通过与家庭社会化过程的关联,作为财务结果的预测因素。设计/方法/方法:本研究采用定量方法和调查设计。父母财务社会化的主要数据收集自结构化问卷。对Fetakgomo Tubatse和Intsika Yethu市的500名年轻非洲黑人成年人进行了一项调查。采用结构方程模型(SEM)分析对研究假设进行了检验。研究发现:父母理财行为、父母理财讨论、父母理财沟通、父母理财教学对孩子的理财知识有显著的正向影响。研究发现,父母理财沟通对子女理财知识的影响最大。父母财务监控对财务知识有显著的负向影响。因此,总体结果表明,父母金融社会化对南非农村和低收入地区的年轻非洲黑人成年人的金融知识有影响。研究限制/影响:由于受访者的一般文化水平较低,这对数据收集产生了负面影响;一些年轻人不理解问卷,退出了参与研究。此外,即使保密和匿名得到保证,受访者也不愿意参与研究。他们害怕暴露自己的财务状况,表现出缺乏信任。原创性/价值:目前的研究对知识体系的贡献与以往的研究不同,因为它关注的是农村和低收入地区年轻非洲黑人成年人的父母财务社会化。在南非农村和低收入地区,父母金融社会化对金融知识的影响还没有研究。这使得这项研究非常重要,并且有理由进行这项研究,以提供急需的结果,帮助提高年轻非洲黑人成年人的金融知识水平。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Intrinsic Factors Influencing Return on Assets: A Case Study of the Hotel Industry in Selected EU Countries 影响资产收益率的内在因素探析——以欧盟部分国家酒店行业为例
Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.161.05
Goran Karanovic
Purpose: The main aim of this study was to determine the intrinsic factors (total equity, trade receivable turnover, working capital turnover, long term debt, current ratio, debt to total assets ratio, debt to equity ratio, net sales revenue trend, total operating revenue trend, shareholders' equity trend, cash to total assets, current liabilities to total liabilities) that influence the financial performance of the Hotel Industry in select Central and Eastern European Union countries. Return on Assets (ROA) was used in this study as measure of financial performance. Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses panel data fixed effects model to examine dependent variable ROA as measure of the financial performance of select Tourism and Leisure Industry companies from Central and Eastern EU member states. The intrinsic factors were applied as independent variables. The applied panel data fixed effects model in the study was utilised to determine the impact of the intrinsic factors on financial performance. The data were obtained from EMIS data base. Overall data encompassed 614 companies from select eight Central and Eastern EU member states for the period 2015-2022. Findings: The model performed in this study discovered that intrinsic factors including total equity, trade receivable turnover, current ratio, debt to total assets ratio, as well as cash to total assets had a significant impact on the ROA. Total equity, current ratio, cash to total assets have positive impact as opposed to the trade receivable turnover debt to total asset, while years 2020 and 2021 had negative impact on the ROA. Research limitations/implications: This study was limited just on the select eight central and eastern European Union countries; moreover, the database EMIS used for this study lacks certain variables that are frequently used in similar studies. Result confirmed the importance of intrinsic factors and their influence on the financial performance of the leisure industry. Originality/value: This study contributes to the existing body of theory on financial performance through research on the new practitioners’ perception of the intrinsic factors relative to financial performance. There are very few empirical studies which examine financial performance variables in the Central and Eastern European leisure industry. Consequently, this study aims to bridge the gap between the available literature and body of research.
目的:本研究的主要目的是确定内在因素(总权益、应收账款周转率、营运资金周转率、长期债务、流动比率、债务与总资产比率、债务与权益比率、净销售收入趋势、总营业收入趋势、股东权益趋势、现金占总资产、流动负债占总负债),这些因素影响了选定的中欧和东欧国家酒店行业的财务绩效。本研究使用资产收益率(ROA)作为财务绩效的衡量标准。设计/方法/方法:本文使用面板数据固定效应模型来检验因变量ROA作为来自中欧和东欧成员国的选择旅游和休闲产业公司财务绩效的衡量标准。将内在因素作为自变量。本研究采用面板数据固定效应模型来确定内在因素对财务绩效的影响。数据来源于EMIS数据库。总体数据包括2015-2022年期间来自八个中欧和东欧欧盟成员国的614家公司。研究发现:本研究的模型发现,权益总额、应收账款周转率、流动比率、负债与总资产比率、现金与总资产比率等内在因素对资产收益率有显著影响。总股本、流动比率、现金与总资产之比与应收账款周转率、债务与总资产之比相比具有正影响,而2020年和2021年对总资产回报率具有负影响。研究局限性/影响:本研究仅限于选定的八个中欧和东欧联盟国家;此外,本研究使用的数据库EMIS缺乏在类似研究中经常使用的某些变量。结果证实了内在因素对休闲产业财务绩效的重要性及其影响。原创性/价值:本研究通过研究新从业者对财务绩效内在因素的感知,为现有的财务绩效理论体系做出贡献。很少有实证研究考察财务绩效变量在中欧和东欧休闲产业。因此,本研究旨在弥合现有文献与研究主体之间的差距。
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引用次数: 0
Maritime Transportation Accidents: A Bibliometric Analysis 海上运输事故:文献计量分析
Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.161.02
Vicky Zampeta, Gregory Chondrokoukis
Purpose: The article aims to highlight the concept of risk management in maritime transportation accidents in the specialized literature on the Web of Sciences database through existing materials. Design/methodology/ approach: The keyword study identifies several keywords as they have been set in this study and as they appear in the Web of Science database. Using VOSviewer our main concern is to identify and highlight the most essential and questioned words associated with the “maritime accidents” and “other issues related with maritime accidents” concept. We extracted 456 articles, underlined 259 keywords with the similar meaning to the keywords we have selected in the previous stage. Findings: We found that the maritime transportation accidents (MTA) topic has limited expansion in the literature. The gaps are considerably big leaving space for further research. The analysis of the keywords proves an interconnection between the MTA, the risk models, safety, management organization and more. Research limitations/implementations: Although there has been an increased interest in this field especially among countries with the shipping sector highly developed (maritime universities in China, London Poland, etc.), we have noticed that the related studies are still at the beginning, especially if we consider the accounting side of this subject. Originality value: The present article can only be the beginning of a set of studies in MTA, given that the issue has an increasing interest in academia. For future research, we can consider using a larger sample, more keywords, and additional databases.
目的:本文旨在通过现有资料,突出Web of Sciences数据库中专业文献中的海上运输事故风险管理概念。设计/方法/方法:关键字研究确定了本研究中设置的几个关键字以及它们出现在Web of Science数据库中的几个关键字。使用VOSviewer,我们主要关注的是识别和突出与“海上事故”和“与海上事故相关的其他问题”概念相关的最重要和最受质疑的词语。我们提取了456篇文章,划出了259个与上一阶段选择的关键词意义相似的关键词。研究结果:我们发现海上运输事故(MTA)的主题在文献中扩展有限。差距相当大,为进一步研究留下了空间。对关键词的分析证明了MTA、风险模型、安全性、管理组织等之间的联系。研究限制/实施:尽管对这一领域的兴趣越来越大,特别是在航运业高度发达的国家(中国的海事大学,伦敦,波兰等),但我们注意到相关研究仍处于起步阶段,特别是如果我们考虑到这一主题的会计方面。原创性价值:鉴于学术界对MTA问题的兴趣日益浓厚,本文只能是一系列MTA研究的开始。对于未来的研究,我们可以考虑使用更大的样本、更多的关键字和更多的数据库。
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引用次数: 0
Earnings Management Ethicality and Application in the Kenyan Public Sector: A Critical Review 盈余管理伦理及其在肯尼亚公共部门的应用:批判性回顾
Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.161.06
Robert Odek, Kalundu Kimanzi
Purpose: This is a critical review of the empirical literature on earnings management ethicality and its application in public sector organizations in the Kenyan context. Design/methodology/approach: Semi-systematic review approach and thematic/content analysis technique were utilized in forming opinions on deductions of the study by reviewing previous publications between 2008-2022. Findings: Outcomes of this study portray that the main factors influencing the management of earnings include; a conducive environment that permits practicing creative accounting without stakeholders’ knowledge, dodging declaring losses in the economic reports, meeting analyst predictions, circumventing submission of higher taxes, to qualify access to debt, contracting motivations, and to accomplish perks knotted to performance. Moreover, there is legitimate and illegitimate management of earnings since there is no consensus in regard to the ethicality of earnings management. Further, this review evidences that both accrual and real earnings management techniques are practiced by managers during reporting. Additionally, there are mixed results as to whether creative accounting is practiced in the public sector or not, and with reference to Kenya, no studies on earnings management ethicality have ever been conducted. Research limitations/implications: There are limited studies on earnings management ethicality in the public sector both in Kenya and globally. Besides, this is a qualitative study that depended on the previously published data in its entirety. This then, implies that all the findings here are not first-hand and are purely dependent on the findings of other studies that had been published. The researcher, therefore, had no control in regard to ascertaining the accuracy of the previous data analyzed. In mitigating these limitations, the majority of the publications included in this study were from high ranked journals. The bulk of the literature reviewed was from research work already conducted in other countries. Originality/value: This study contributes to accounting theory as an area of study. It depicts the deductive approach of research which can then be embraced by other graduate accounting students in furthering accounting research. Besides, it contributes to strategy makers like the Kenya Accounting Standards Board in the formulation and implementation of accounting principles. It also forms a basis for further research in the management of earnings and its ethicality among public sector firms. That is, no other study has been done in Kenya and just a few studies have been carried out globally.
目的:这是对肯尼亚背景下盈余管理伦理及其在公共部门组织中的应用的实证文献的批判性回顾。设计/方法/方法:采用半系统回顾法和专题/内容分析技术,通过回顾2008-2022年间的先前出版物,形成对研究推论的意见。研究结果表明:影响盈余管理的主要因素包括:一个有利的环境,允许在利益相关者不知情的情况下进行创造性的会计核算,避免在经济报告中申报损失,满足分析师的预测,避免提交更高的税收,有资格获得债务,有合同动机,并实现与业绩挂钩的津贴。此外,由于在盈余管理的伦理问题上没有达成共识,因此存在合法和非法的盈余管理。此外,这篇综述证明了应计盈余和真实盈余管理技术都是由管理者在报告过程中实践的。此外,关于创造性会计是否在公共部门实施,结果好坏参半,就肯尼亚而言,从未进行过关于盈余管理伦理的研究。研究限制/影响:在肯尼亚和全球公共部门盈余管理伦理的研究有限。此外,这是一项定性研究,完全依赖于之前发表的数据。因此,这意味着这里所有的发现都不是第一手的,而完全依赖于其他已发表的研究结果。研究人员,因此,没有控制关于确定以前的数据分析的准确性。为了减轻这些限制,本研究中纳入的大多数出版物来自高排名期刊。所审查的大部分文献来自于已经在其他国家进行的研究工作。原创性/价值:本研究有助于会计理论作为一个研究领域。它描述了研究的演绎方法,可以被其他研究生会计学生在进一步的会计研究中所接受。此外,它还有助于肯尼亚会计准则委员会等战略制定者制定和实施会计原则。它还为进一步研究公共部门公司的盈余管理及其道德规范奠定了基础。也就是说,在肯尼亚没有进行过其他研究,而在全球范围内只进行了一些研究。
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引用次数: 0
Credit Rating and Board Evaluation of Family Firms 家族企业的信用评级与董事会评估
Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.161.01
Ya-Fang Wang, Yu-Chu Hsieh
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to shed the light on board evaluation for following analyses that will explore whether and how does credit rating agencies react to board performance evaluation. Design/methodology/approach: To test our research questions, we hand-collect board evaluation information for Taiwan publicly firms from annual reports and firm websites for the years 2019 to 2021. Then, we use the ordered probit model to examine our research questions. Finding: First, our results show that there is a relationship between family firms and unfavorable ratings. However, effective board evaluation was shown to strengthen transparency and accountability in internal governance environment, thereby moderating such negative relationships. Second, when family firms are mandated to establish audit committees or change auditors, they are more likely to receive unfavorable ratings. Specifically, effective board evaluation moderates’ negative effects on ratings and positively impacts rater perceptions. Third, rating agencies assign a more unfavorable rating to family firms that ignore gender diversity on audit committees, however, effective audit committee’s evaluation could moderate the concern whether gender diversity on audit committees affect the effectiveness of corporate governance. Research limitations/implications: First, we focus on the context of family governance to examine the effect of board evaluation on credit ratings. Therefore, our findings may not be applicable to non-family firms. Second, we are not able to directly observe the mechanism of board evaluation because our study uses hand-collected data of board evaluation obtained from publicly available MOPS reports and website news. In addition, our sample period is limited from 2019 until 2022 due to the significantly higher hand-collecting cost of using board evaluation data. Third, with respect to our extended analyses on audit changes, we didn’t consider the types of auditor changes because it is difficult to distinguish between auditor resignations and dismissals. Finally, although we include control variables consistent with prior studies, our research models may have not fully captured variables associated with credit ratings. Originality/value: First, our results contribute to the family firm literature on the relationship between corporate governance and economic consequence by focusing on the importance of board evaluation. Second, our findings can be useful to regulators and policy-makers in making governance policies aiming to mandate the establishment of audit committees’ complementary rules by encouraging family firms to fulfill the board evaluation for improving the quality of governance environment. Third, our findings not only contribute to the auditing literature but also imply that the board’s performance evaluation plays a positive factor in credit raters’ considerations. Fourth, our findings contribute to the audit committee literature examining the effects
目的:本文的目的是为以下分析提供线索,探讨信用评级机构是否以及如何对董事会绩效评估做出反应。设计/方法/方法:为了验证我们的研究问题,我们从2019年至2021年的年度报告和公司网站上手工收集台湾上市公司的董事会评估信息。然后,我们使用有序概率模型来检验我们的研究问题。发现:首先,我们的研究结果表明,家族企业与不利评级之间存在关系。然而,有效的董事会评估可以增强内部治理环境的透明度和问责制,从而调节这种负相关关系。其次,当家族企业被要求建立审计委员会或更换审计师时,它们更有可能获得不利的评级。具体而言,有效的董事会评估调节了对评级的负面影响,并积极影响了评级者的看法。第三,评级机构对忽视审计委员会性别多样性的家族企业给予更不利的评级,然而,有效的审计委员会评估可以缓和对审计委员会性别多样性是否影响公司治理有效性的担忧。研究局限/启示:首先,我们着眼于家族治理的背景,考察董事会评估对信用评级的影响。因此,我们的研究结果可能不适用于非家族企业。其次,我们无法直接观察董事会评估的机制,因为我们的研究使用的是手工收集的董事会评估数据,这些数据来自公开的MOPS报告和网站新闻。此外,我们的样本周期从2019年限制到2022年,因为使用董事会评估数据的手工收集成本要高得多。第三,关于我们对审计变更的扩展分析,我们没有考虑审计师变更的类型,因为很难区分审计师辞职和解雇。最后,尽管我们包含了与先前研究一致的控制变量,但我们的研究模型可能没有完全捕获与信用评级相关的变量。原创性/价值:首先,我们的研究结果通过关注董事会评估的重要性,为家族企业关于公司治理与经济后果之间关系的文献做出了贡献。第二,我们的研究结果可以为监管机构和政策制定者制定治理政策,通过鼓励家族企业履行董事会评估来强制建立审计委员会的补充规则,以改善治理环境质量提供有益的参考。第三,我们的研究结果不仅对审计文献有所贡献,而且暗示董事会的绩效评估在信用评级者的考虑中起着积极的作用。第四,我们的发现有助于审计委员会研究性别多样性和绩效评估的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Expenditures of Hellenic Supermarket Customers Spending Clusters: An Econometric Analysis 新冠肺炎疫情对希腊超市顾客消费集群支出的影响:经济计量分析
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.152.07
S. Daskou, Antonis Zairis, Dikaios Tserkezos
Purpose: Given the severity and the length of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, information on the financial impact of the pandemic becomes useful to enterprises who wish to arm themselves with strategies and policies, designed to combat the effects of similar crises. Such information is particularly useful to grocery retailers, who may need to know the effects of the pandemic on spending behaviour of different spending power classes of consumers. To that end, the study explores the configuration of (supermarket) consumer spending in Greece in relation to the number of: a) reported COVID-19 infections; b) admissions in hospital intensive care units, and: c) number of COVID-19 reported deaths, for the period betweenFebruary the 26th, 2020 to April 30th, 2021. Design/methodology/approach: Methodologically, the paper focuses on an econometric analysis of daily spending reactions of six distinct spending clustersof consumersof Greek nation -wide supermarket chain, measured against official numbers of COVID-19 related metrics in Greece during the period of February 2020- April 2021. The data used, emerged from daily sales records of a national chain of supermarkets in Greece, consisting of 60 stores. Proven econometric causality techniques were used to analyse the data by applying Hsiao's Optimizing Procedure via the “Stepwise Granger Causality”, for the statistical tests of possible interactions between variables. Findings: The study found a phenomenal effect of the number of reported COVID-19 related deaths on consumers’ supermarket spending in Greece. The study revealed the statistically significant effects of the COVID-19 variables on the 6 buyers’ clusters. These statistically significant effects have a diachronic behaviour which is varied in relation to the covid variables. The findings indicate that the biggest fluctuations in daily consumer reactions (on reported COVID-19 related variables) occurred in lower spending clusters of consumers, diminished over a period of about 15 days. The study also revealed that consumers’ spending reaction on infection case is minimal compared to that of reported deaths, signalling a relative apathy to the number of reported infection cases. Research limitations/implications: One basic constraint was the lack of spending data over a longer period of time which would have included the entire pandemic era. Ideally the researchers would prefer to compare customer spending data of several supermarket chains, yet the availability of such data was scarce. The findings also imply that lower spending clusters react more intensively to COVID-19 outcomes and as such marketing efforts to serve these target markets may need to be customized. Originality/value: The interpretation of the results reveals that the level of panic that drives reactionary spending appears to be lower in higher spending consumers. This study contributes to theory by appreciating the Greek supermarket customers’ psychological reaction to
目的:鉴于COVID-19大流行造成的危机的严重性和持续时间,关于大流行财务影响的信息对于希望用旨在应对类似危机影响的战略和政策武装自己的企业非常有用。这些信息对杂货零售商特别有用,他们可能需要了解大流行对不同消费能力阶层消费者消费行为的影响。为此,该研究探讨了希腊(超市)消费者支出的配置与以下数字的关系:a)报告的COVID-19感染;b) 2020年2月26日至2021年4月30日期间,医院重症监护病房的入院人数,以及c) 2019冠状病毒病报告的死亡人数。设计/方法/方法:在方法上,本文侧重于对希腊全国连锁超市的六个不同消费群体的日常消费反应进行计量经济学分析,并根据2020年2月至2021年4月期间希腊COVID-19相关指标的官方数据进行测量。所使用的数据来自希腊一家全国连锁超市的每日销售记录,该超市由60家商店组成。采用计量经济学因果关系技术,通过“逐步格兰杰因果关系”应用萧优化程序对数据进行分析,对变量之间可能的相互作用进行统计检验。研究结果:该研究发现,报告的COVID-19相关死亡人数对希腊消费者的超市支出产生了惊人的影响。研究发现,新冠肺炎变量对6个买家群体的影响具有统计学意义。这些统计上显著的影响具有历时性,随covid变量的变化而变化。研究结果表明,消费者日常反应(根据报告的COVID-19相关变量)的最大波动发生在支出较低的消费者群体中,这种波动在大约15天的时间内减弱。该研究还显示,与报告的死亡人数相比,消费者对感染病例的消费反应最小,这表明他们对报告的感染病例数量相对漠不关心。研究局限/影响:一个基本制约因素是缺乏包括整个大流行时期在内的较长时期的支出数据。理想情况下,研究人员更愿意比较几家连锁超市的顾客消费数据,但这种数据的可用性很少。研究结果还表明,支出较低的集群对COVID-19结果的反应更强烈,因此,为这些目标市场服务的营销努力可能需要定制。原创性/价值:对结果的解释表明,在高消费的消费者中,推动反动消费的恐慌程度似乎较低。本研究不依赖于自我报告的数据,通过欣赏希腊超市顾客对COVID-19相关变量的心理反应,为理论做出了贡献。虽然这项研究的目的不是揭示这种情况发生的原因,但结果表明,客户群体对COVID -19相关严重负面报道的反应存在差异。使用的数据是客观的,采用的分析方法适合于研究的目的。该论文进一步建议,未来的研究可以在本研究的基础上:(a)通过对日常数据应用非线性和可能混乱的因果关系检验,检查大流行各个阶段客户支出变化的因果关系;(b)确定受COVID-19相关因素报告影响的消费者在特定产品类别上的支出模式变化的确切阈值。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary Conditions Index and Economic Activity in Dollarized Zimbabwe 美元化津巴布韦的货币状况指数和经济活动
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.152.04
Gift Mupunga
Purpose: Zimbabwe has experienced a chronic inflationary crisis whose roots can be traced back to 1997. Various macroeconomic instruments have been suggested to stabilize the country’s prices and foster economic growth but evidence on how they interplay to influence policy is lacking. This study developed a monetary conditions index (MCI) for Zimbabwe during the 10-year dollarization period, 2009 to 2018, and measured its correlation with economic activity. The aim of the MCI is to inform monetary policy making in Zimbabwe. Design/methodology/approach: Using monthly time series data, the MCI series from 2009 to 2018 was calculated using real interest rates and exchange rates. The relationship between the MCI, GDP, inflation, money supply and private sector credit was analysed using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the long-term relationship and Granger causality for the short term. Findings: Results showed MCI weights of 1:1.54 implying that exchange rates dominate the interest rate in Zimbabwe’s monetary policy. A long run relationship between the MCI and economic variables was statistically significant while short term relationships were established for private sector credit, GDP, and foreign interest rates. Research implications: The study concludes that the MCI is a useful indicator of the central bank’s monetary policy positionfor economic analysts while the central bank can also adopt it for inflation and growth targeting. Originality/value: Unlike previous research which has proffered monetary solutions based on specific variables, this study took into consideration the interplay between interest rates and exchange rates in determining economic activity in Zimbabwe. The constructed MCI captured the interplay between these two key variables and the study established its relationship with economic activity. On this basis, the study recommends the adoption of the MCI in guiding monetary policy in Zimbabwe.
目的:津巴布韦经历了一场长期的通货膨胀危机,其根源可以追溯到1997年。有人提出了各种宏观经济工具来稳定国家价格和促进经济增长,但缺乏证据表明它们如何相互作用来影响政策。本研究为津巴布韦制定了2009年至2018年10年美元化期间的货币条件指数,并测量了其与经济活动的相关性。MCI的目的是为津巴布韦的货币政策制定提供信息。设计/方法/方法:使用月度时间序列数据,使用实际利率和汇率计算2009年至2018年的MCI系列。使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型分析了MCI、GDP、通货膨胀、货币供应量和私营部门信贷之间的长期关系,并使用Granger因果关系分析了短期关系。研究结果:结果显示,MCI权重为1:1.54,这意味着汇率在津巴布韦货币政策中主导利率。MCI和经济变量之间的长期关系具有统计学意义,而私营部门信贷、GDP和外国利率之间的短期关系则成立。研究意义:该研究得出结论,MCI是经济分析师衡量央行货币政策立场的有用指标,而央行也可以将其用于通胀和增长目标。独创性/价值:与之前基于特定变量提供货币解决方案的研究不同,这项研究在决定津巴布韦经济活动时考虑了利率和汇率之间的相互作用。构建的MCI捕捉到了这两个关键变量之间的相互作用,该研究确立了其与经济活动的关系。在此基础上,研究建议采用MCI来指导津巴布韦的货币政策。
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引用次数: 1
Reframing the High-Technology Landscape in Greece: Empirical Evidence and Policy Aspects 重塑希腊高科技格局:经验证据和政策方面
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.152.06
A. Angelakis
Purpose: The major purpose of the paper is to explore, identify and highlight the general and specialized (sector-specific) long-term technology trends following the evolution of technology-intensive sectors in Greece during the last years. In a similar vein, sectoral differentiations have been identified and highlighted (e.g. evolution, growth, size distribution, industrial dynamics) as an analytical dimension of innovative activity across the high-technology sectoral domain. Design/methodology/approach: The paper methodology consists of a systematic review of primary data collected through the Eurostat/SBS database and the SME Performance Review 2022, as one of the major tools the European Commission uses to monitor and assess countries' progress in implementingthe SmallBusinessAct (SBA). The methodological approach of the paper involves the mapping of sector-specific trends in terms of technology-intensive categories, size classes and underlying sectoral characteristics and dynamics trends. Findings: The exploration of detailed and long-term data within the landscape of technology-intensive sectors in Greece, provides a clearer picture for the upward and downward trends, the sector-specific differentiations and the upcoming challenges. High-tech enterprises constitute a considerably important part of the country’s productive base with gradually increasing trends in all relevant categories. This is further motivated by the development of start-ups and spin-offs in several fields of higher technological specialization (‘deep tech’). Research limitations/implications: It is widely accepted that aggregated technology growth is a long-term and multi-level process within an economy. Further research regarding the actual and potential spillover effects of technology sectors across the wider economy constitutes an important area of further research. The paper provides a multi-dimensional analytical framework to identify sector-based technological and industrial underlying dynamics and understand long-term sectoral characteristics and trends within the high-tech industry evolution in Greece. Originality/value: The paper provides an analytical approach to explore the underlying industrial dynamic trends within the technology-intensive sectors in Greece. The exploration of detailed and long-term data within the landscape of technology-intensive sectors in Greece provides an overall view of the underlying technology-intensive sectors’ dynamics, the sector-specific differentiations, the upcoming challenges and the innovation policy implications.
目的:本文的主要目的是探索、确定和强调希腊过去几年技术密集型部门发展后的一般和专门(特定部门)长期技术趋势。同样,部门差异也被确定和强调(如演变、增长、规模分布、产业动态),作为整个高技术部门领域创新活动的一个分析层面。设计/方法/方法:论文方法包括对通过欧盟统计局/SBS数据库和2022年中小企业绩效评估收集的主要数据进行系统审查,这是欧盟委员会用于监测和评估各国实施《小企业法》进展情况的主要工具之一。该文件的方法论方法涉及根据技术密集型类别、规模类别和潜在的部门特征和动态趋势绘制特定部门的趋势图。调查结果:对希腊技术密集型行业的详细和长期数据的探索,为上升和下降趋势、特定行业的差异和即将到来的挑战提供了更清晰的画面。高科技企业是我国生产基地的重要组成部分,所有相关类别的高科技企业都呈逐渐增加的趋势。这进一步受到了一些更高技术专业化领域(“深度技术”)初创企业和子公司的发展的推动。研究局限性/影响:人们普遍认为,技术总量增长是一个经济体内的长期多层次过程。关于技术部门在更广泛经济中的实际和潜在溢出效应的进一步研究是进一步研究的一个重要领域。本文提供了一个多维度的分析框架,以确定基于部门的技术和产业潜在动态,并了解希腊高科技产业演变中的长期部门特征和趋势。独创性/价值:本文提供了一种分析方法,以探索希腊技术密集型行业的潜在产业动态趋势。在希腊技术密集型行业的背景下,对详细和长期数据的探索提供了对潜在技术密集型部门动态、特定行业差异、即将到来的挑战和创新政策影响的总体看法。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research
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