Fundamental for self-developing processes model and problems of its application to earthquakes prediction in the Far East region

Abstract

Seismic activation in the period of foreshocks (prior to the mainshock) described by the model of self-developing processes (SDP) is possibly a manifestation of explosive instability of low frequency straining waves in metastable medium. To highlight so nontrivial relationship of continuous wave motions and discrete seismic events flow is a goal of this narrative. Thus, the rationale of the SDP model (the equation, in reality) has been modified, which is of importance in relevance with the article by the Malyshevs in the current issue (A.I. Malyshev, L.K. Malysheva. Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and South Kurils region) which is to improve the seismic hazard estimates by means of this model. A new way to reveal the very beginning of blow-up regime after quasi-stationary one is proposed.