Concerning the theory of LURR based deterministic earthquake prediction

Abstract

This paper considers theoretical aspects of a trigger effect of earth tides on earthquake initiation under the LURR approach. The growth of Coulomb stress, which appears resulting from this phenomenon, is shown to occur not for all regimes of stress state acting in the studied region. Its greatest increase corresponds to the regime of the horizontal extension and shear associated with the faults with kinematics of the normal and strike-slip faults. The low level of additional Coulomb stress for the horizontal compression regime allows asserting the low probability of the trigger effect for the faults with kinematics of the reverse faults. It is noted, that there is also an indirect factor in the form of additional pressure caused by the sea tides in addition to the main factor of the earth tides effect on deformations in the solid earth for island arcs and coastal areas of the continental crust. This is an additional vertical pressure for the ocean floor, and a lateral pressure for the crust of island arcs and coastal areas of the continents. Indirect factors significantly complicate the effect of earth tides on the Earth’s crust, completely neutralizing the influence of the direct factor in some cases.