D. Cantrell, R. Vanderstichel, R. Filgueira, J. Grant, C. Revie
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引用次数: 5
Abstract
Sea lice are one of the most economically costly and ecologically concerning problems facing the salmon farming industry. Here, we validated a coupled biological and physical model that simulated sea lice larvae dispersal from salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago (BA), British Columbia, Canada. We employed a concept from ecological agent-based modeling known as ‘pattern matching’, which identifies similar emergent properties in both the simulated and observed data to confirm that the simulation contained sufficient complexity to recreate the emergent properties of the system. One emergent property from the biophysical simulations was the existence of sub-networks of farms. These were also identified in the observed sea lice count data in this study using a space-time scan statistic (SaTScan) to identify significant spatio-temporal clusters of farms. Despite finding support for our simulation in the observed data, which consisted of over a decade’s worth of monthly sea lice abundance counts from salmon farms in the BA, the validation was not entirely straightforward. The complexities associated with validating this biophysical dispersal simulation highlight the need to further develop validation techniques for agent-based models in general, and biophysical simulations in particular, which often result in patchiness in their dispersal fields. The methods utilised in this validation could be adopted as a template for other epidemiological dispersal models, particularly those related to aquaculture, which typically have robust disease monitoring data collection plans in place.
期刊介绍:
AEI presents rigorously refereed and carefully selected Research Articles, Reviews and Notes, as well as Comments/Reply Comments (for details see MEPS 228:1), Theme Sections and Opinion Pieces. For details consult the Guidelines for Authors. Papers may be concerned with interactions between aquaculture and the environment from local to ecosystem scales, at all levels of organisation and investigation. Areas covered include:
-Pollution and nutrient inputs; bio-accumulation and impacts of chemical compounds used in aquaculture.
-Effects on benthic and pelagic assemblages or processes that are related to aquaculture activities.
-Interactions of wild fauna (invertebrates, fishes, birds, mammals) with aquaculture activities; genetic impacts on wild populations.
-Parasite and pathogen interactions between farmed and wild stocks.
-Comparisons of the environmental effects of traditional and organic aquaculture.
-Introductions of alien species; escape and intentional releases (seeding) of cultured organisms into the wild.
-Effects of capture-based aquaculture (ranching).
-Interactions of aquaculture installations with biofouling organisms and consequences of biofouling control measures.
-Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture; comparisons of re-circulation and ‘open’ systems.
-Effects of climate change and environmental variability on aquaculture activities.
-Modelling of aquaculture–environment interactions; assessment of carrying capacity.
-Interactions between aquaculture and other industries (e.g. tourism, fisheries, transport).
-Policy and practice of aquaculture regulation directed towards environmental management; site selection, spatial planning, Integrated Coastal Zone Management, and eco-ethics.