Validation of a sea lice dispersal model: principles from ecological agent-based models applied to aquatic epidemiology

IF 2.2 2区 农林科学 Q2 FISHERIES Aquaculture Environment Interactions Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.3354/aei00390
D. Cantrell, R. Vanderstichel, R. Filgueira, J. Grant, C. Revie
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Sea lice are one of the most economically costly and ecologically concerning problems facing the salmon farming industry. Here, we validated a coupled biological and physical model that simulated sea lice larvae dispersal from salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago (BA), British Columbia, Canada. We employed a concept from ecological agent-based modeling known as ‘pattern matching’, which identifies similar emergent properties in both the simulated and observed data to confirm that the simulation contained sufficient complexity to recreate the emergent properties of the system. One emergent property from the biophysical simulations was the existence of sub-networks of farms. These were also identified in the observed sea lice count data in this study using a space-time scan statistic (SaTScan) to identify significant spatio-temporal clusters of farms. Despite finding support for our simulation in the observed data, which consisted of over a decade’s worth of monthly sea lice abundance counts from salmon farms in the BA, the validation was not entirely straightforward. The complexities associated with validating this biophysical dispersal simulation highlight the need to further develop validation techniques for agent-based models in general, and biophysical simulations in particular, which often result in patchiness in their dispersal fields. The methods utilised in this validation could be adopted as a template for other epidemiological dispersal models, particularly those related to aquaculture, which typically have robust disease monitoring data collection plans in place.
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海虱扩散模型的验证:应用于水生流行病学的基于生态主体的模型的原理
海虱是三文鱼养殖业面临的经济成本和生态问题之一。在这里,我们验证了一个耦合的生物和物理模型,该模型模拟了加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省布劳顿群岛(BA)鲑鱼养殖场的海虱幼虫扩散。我们采用了一种基于生态主体的建模概念,称为“模式匹配”,它在模拟和观察数据中识别出相似的紧急属性,以确认模拟包含足够的复杂性来重建系统的紧急属性。生物物理模拟的一个新特性是农场子网络的存在。本研究还利用时空扫描统计(SaTScan)在观察到的海虱计数数据中确定了这些数据,以确定重要的时空农场集群。尽管在观察到的数据中发现了对我们模拟的支持,这些数据包括十多年来英国大湾区鲑鱼养殖场每月海虱数量的统计,但验证并不完全直截了当。验证这种生物物理扩散模拟的复杂性突出了进一步开发基于主体的模型的验证技术的必要性,特别是生物物理模拟,这通常会导致其扩散领域的斑块。该验证中使用的方法可以作为其他流行病学传播模型的模板,特别是与水产养殖有关的模型,这些模型通常具有健全的疾病监测数据收集计划。
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来源期刊
Aquaculture Environment Interactions
Aquaculture Environment Interactions FISHERIES-MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
13.60%
发文量
15
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: AEI presents rigorously refereed and carefully selected Research Articles, Reviews and Notes, as well as Comments/Reply Comments (for details see MEPS 228:1), Theme Sections and Opinion Pieces. For details consult the Guidelines for Authors. Papers may be concerned with inter­actions between aquaculture and the environment from local to ecosystem scales, at all levels of organisation and investigation. Areas covered include: -Pollution and nutrient inputs; bio-accumulation and impacts of chemical compounds used in aquaculture. -Effects on benthic and pelagic assemblages or pro­cesses that are related to aquaculture activities. -Interactions of wild fauna (invertebrates, fishes, birds, mammals) with aquaculture activities; genetic impacts on wild populations. -Parasite and pathogen interactions between farmed and wild stocks. -Comparisons of the environmental effects of traditional and organic aquaculture. -Introductions of alien species; escape and intentional releases (seeding) of cultured organisms into the wild. -Effects of capture-based aquaculture (ranching). -Interactions of aquaculture installations with biofouling organisms and consequences of biofouling control measures. -Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture; comparisons of re-circulation and ‘open’ systems. -Effects of climate change and environmental variability on aquaculture activities. -Modelling of aquaculture–environment interactions; ­assessment of carrying capacity. -Interactions between aquaculture and other industries (e.g. tourism, fisheries, transport). -Policy and practice of aquaculture regulation directed towards environmental management; site selection, spatial planning, Integrated Coastal Zone Management, and eco-ethics.
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