VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE RECEPTIVE TOURISM CRISIS

Abstract

This research analyzed the behavior of receptive tourism in Ecuador and its relationship with the United States’ economy. An index was developed to measure instability and crisis levels as well as the vector autoregressive models - VAR, cointegration as well as hypothesis tests through vectors. The findings indicate that Ecuador endured a crisis 12 out of 19 years; on the other hand, while the United States entered a crisis, the figures of Ecuadorian tourism improved. Likewise, the GDP’s inverse growth movement influenced the reduction in the number of tourists. Therefore, expenditure capacity decided the touristic destination, not so Ecuador’s internal cost index. Finally, it was proven that the average expenditure of a foreign tourist was reduced across time.