North Korea's Threat Perception and Provocation under Kim Jong- Un: The Security Dilemma and the Obsession with Political Survival*

Abstract

IntroductionA lack of consideration of the founder of North Korea, Kim Il-sung, and his family's perceptional variants has misled the estimation of North Korea's provocative policy and its determination to take risks. It is argued here that North Korea's security dilemma and its obsession with father-to-son successions have been the principal causes of its provocative behavior. The security dilemma1has impelled North Korea to generate, and thus portray to the world, provocative signals; and the everpressing issue of Kim Il-sung and his family's succession has driven them to prioritize their political survival over that of the survival of the North Korean state. When Kim Il-sung and his family engage simultaneously in encounters related to the security dilemma and major issues involving the succession, they provoke. When their political survival is threatened, they take a step back.Threat Perception and North KoreaWhen a leader perceives that his values and interests are endangered, and at the same time he perceives an inability to control events and faces a lack of resources that can be manipulated against this threat, we witness a leader who perceives threat.2 When a leader is uncertain about his international and domestic circumstances, which would limit his choice between alternatives, perceptions matter.3 A leader's choices are not explicable without some reference to his priorities, obsessions, and perceptions of international relations and domestic politics. His priorities, obsessions, and perceptions are significantly influenced by his assumptions, views, and preexisting beliefs.4 This is why each analysis encounters the issue of the objectivity of the leaders' perceptions and conceptualization.5 One of the most important reasons for the North Korean nuclear stalemate was the perceptional gap between Washington and Pyongyang.6A perception of threat would frame the situation in a way that would emphasize possible gains or possible losses. To frame a threat is to highlight some aspects of the threat and make them more salient in such a way as to suggest a particular problem-solving definition. Essentially, frames define the threat, identify the causes of the threat, and recommend policy alternatives. In this process, threat percep-tion frames the situation and choice of alternatives by drawing attention to specific ways in which to respond and at the same time marginalizing more dovish perspectives. In this respect, the leader would ultimately take greater risks than he had intended.7How a situation is framed, intentionally or unintentionally, affects a leader's policy choices. The most fundamental effect of framing is to define the boundary of a leader's perception by placing a certain situation within a certain sphere of meaning.8 In doing so, frames influence the process in which the leader perceives, understands, and remembers a certain incident, thereby affecting and guiding his subsequent judgment and responses.9A state's foreign policy is made not just by cost-benefit calculations but by various domestic as well as international factors that frame decision-makers.10 As defensive realists argue, the diagnosis of the adversary's motivations in addition to its capability is a critical element in assessing a country's foreign policy. A different interpretation of the adversary's motivations leads to different policy prescriptions, even under similar situations. Thus, interpreting North Korea's motivations behind its nuclear program should determine U.S. policy toward the Pyongyang regime.11North Korea's unconventional interpretation of threat is framed by the Juche ideology and pursued in the name of military-first politics. The theme of Juche may be summarized as "defiance of fate and assertion as the actor, or subject, as the creator of history."12 Rather than staying passive, the Juche ideology compels people to struggle against a hostile environment in order to turn it into a favorable one:The Juche ideology manifests a new question on the subject and the source of power to govern and make changes in the world. …