FORECAST ESTIMATES OF YIELD AND INDIRECT PRODUCTION LOSSES OF MAIN AGRICULTURAL CROPS IN UKRAINE IN 2023 UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF MARTIAL LAW

Abstract

Summary The purpose of the work is to highlight the results of forecasting the yield and production of the main agricultural crops in 2023 based on the operational data of remote agromonitoring and the assessment of indirect losses of the gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops in Ukraine under martial law. Methods and materials. Predictive estimates of the yield of agricultural crops are calculated on the basis of statistical data on their productivity for the period 2000-2022 and remote agricultural monitoring data (NDVI indices) on the state of crops in Ukraine in the spring of 2023. Standard methods of correlation-regression analysis were used to establish relationships between NDVI indicators and regional average yield values of the main field crops. Potential indirect production losses of the group of grain and leguminous crops in Ukraine in 2023 were calculated based on the dynamics of the reduction of sowing and harvesting areas in the conditions of martial law and, accordingly, from the losses for the country’s agrarian sector due to the lack of potential profit from the sale of grain, estimated at domestic purchase prices. Results. According to estimates based on actual winter sowing volumes and spring sowing rates, the harvested area of grain and leguminous crops in 2023 is expected to be about 10.4 million hectares. The average yield of grain and leguminous crops in Ukraine as a whole is predicted with a probability of 80-85% at the level of 47-49 t/ha, which according to preliminary estimates is close to last year’s value and the average indicators of the pre-war level. At the same time, the gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops is expected at the level of 48.4-50.5 million tons, compared to the average pre-war level of 75 million tons. That is, the losses from military aggression only for the loss of production of this group of crops currently reach about 25-24 million tons or more than UAH 150 billion. Conclusions. Military aggression against Ukraine will have negative consequences for the cultivation of agricultural crops in 2023, mainly due to the shortage of mineral fertilizers, pesticides and other means of production, the general reduction of sown areas and a number of other negative economic consequences, however, the projected production volumes of grain crops are currently sufficient to ensure needs of the Ukrainian population.