Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The article puts forward the thesis that the COVID-19 recession has already passed, which makes it possible to make some other conclusions . It is emphasized that the recession was triggered mainly by temporary restrictions on social contacts and mobility that were “external” to the economy. For Russia, it was aggravated by discords among the OPEC+ members. It is established that the 2020 drop of economic activity turned out to be unprecedentedly deep and unprecedentedly short, in some cases even less than one quarter. Compared to other countries, Russia passed the crisis quite successfully, although the size of the Russian stimulus package was much smaller than in the most developed countries. It is noticed that around the world quite fast recovery began immediately after the mitigation of lockdowns. Relatively recent data allowed us to conclude that by mid–2021, most emerging economies, including Russia, had reached pre-pandemic levels. It is shown that most forecasts agree that in 2021 (and partly in 2022) there will be an accelerated recovery and then the main macroeconomic indicators will return to pre-recession trajectories. At the same time, the changes in consumer preferences and business models triggered by the pandemic can lead to sustainable shifts in the sectoral structure of economies.