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Factors infl uencing transfer policy of football clubs 影响足球俱乐部转会政策的因素
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_66
M. Bida, A. G. Mirzoyan
The purpose of this work is to identify the factors that form the market value of a football player. The study tests hypotheses about the influence of individual characteristics (age, height, weight), statistical performance indicators from local and international competitions both at the club level and at the national team level, expert assessments from the FIFA sports simulator, as well as injury history on the transfer value of a player, the number of days until the expiration of the contract, the number of transfers and the characteristics of the player’s agent. The selection of variables for the final models is made according to statistical criteria, as well as using Lasso and Ridge regressions. The analysis uses a linear model as well as a Heckman model in various specifi cations. The study showed a signifi cant negative impact of injuries on the cost of a football player (a day in the hospital — 0.2% of the cost) and a positive impact of goals in EuroCups. In addition, the influence of agents on the cost of transfers of football players was revealed: large agencies reduce the cost of a transfer by 8%, other things being equal, but increase the probability of a transfer by 2%. The effect of "Neymar" is substantiated: prices in the football market after the transfer of a football player increased by an average of more than 20%. Peculiarities in the transfer policy of the clubs that planned to organize the "Super League" were also revealed.
这项工作的目的是确定形成足球运动员市场价值的因素。该研究测试了个人特征(年龄、身高、体重)、俱乐部和国家队本地和国际比赛的统计表现指标、国际足联体育模拟器的专家评估以及伤病史对球员转会价值、合同到期天数、转会次数和球员经纪人特征的影响的假设。根据统计标准选择最终模型的变量,并使用Lasso和Ridge回归。分析使用了线性模型和各种规格的Heckman模型。研究表明,伤病对足球运动员的成本有显著的负面影响(住院一天占成本的0.2%),而对欧洲杯的进球有积极影响。此外,还揭示了经纪人对足球运动员转会成本的影响:在其他条件相同的情况下,大型经纪人会使转会成本降低8%,但会使转会概率增加2%。“内马尔”的影响得到了证实:一名足球运动员转会后,足球市场的价格平均上涨了20%以上。计划举办“超级联赛”的俱乐部在转会政策上的特殊性也被揭露出来。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of the effectiveness of administrative-territorial transformations in Russia 评价俄罗斯行政-领土转型的有效性
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_89
Yulia V. Dubrovskaya, Yu.G. Belonogov, E. Kozonogova
In modern studies devoted to the issues of reforming the administrativeterritorial division in the present and historical past of Russia, the point of view traditionally prevails, according to which the true goal of such transformations is to create not so much an economically efficient but a state-administrative territorial framework. However, most of these judgments are not supported by empirical evidence and quantitative estimates. Therefore, modeling the problem of the conflict of managerial and economic interests during the reform of the administrative- territorial division of Russia seems to be an interesting research task. Its solution will give a new assessment of the effectiveness of administrative-territorial transformations both in historical retrospect and in modern political realities. The authors collected statistical data for 135 years for studying the evolution of the territorial organization of Russia. The value of real GDP per capita in 1913 prices was chosen as an endogenous variable. As the main variables of interest, dummy variables were used, obtained according to the authors’ grouping of historical events and characterizing political and economic initiatives to change the territorial division of the country. As a result of modeling, it was proved that the transformations on the "crossroads" of the administrative borders of the regions (regardless of the declared goals) during the period under review contributed more to solving the political and managerial tasks of the Center than to the economic development.
在致力于改革俄罗斯现在和历史上的行政领土划分问题的现代研究中,传统上流行的观点是,这种转变的真正目标不是创造一个经济上有效的国家-行政领土框架,而是创造一个国家-行政领土框架。然而,这些判断大多没有经验证据和定量估计的支持。因此,对俄罗斯行政区划改革过程中的管理利益与经济利益冲突问题进行建模是一项有趣的研究任务。这一问题的解决将在历史回顾和现代政治现实中对行政-领土改革的有效性作出新的评价。为了研究俄罗斯领土组织的演变,作者收集了135年的统计数据。选取1913年实际人均GDP作为内生变量。作为主要感兴趣的变量,使用虚拟变量,根据作者对历史事件的分组和对改变国家领土划分的政治和经济举措的特征获得虚拟变量。建模的结果证明,在本报告所述期间,区域行政边界“十字路口”的转变(无论宣布的目标如何)对解决中心的政治和管理任务的贡献大于对经济发展的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Neoclassical roots of behavioral economics 行为经济学的新古典主义根源
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_110
A. A. Upravitelev
Despite the fact that the names of a number of Nobel laureates are associated with behavioral economics, researchers regard this branch of science as an unorthodox, avant-garde research program. This article aims to fill this theoretical gap and link behavioral economics to mainstream of economic thought, as well as to divide behavioral economics into several directions — relative to the initial approaches or theories of neoclassics. In the first row of cases, we collected those approaches of neoclassical economics about economic behavior, in relation to which alternative concepts were proposed by behavioral economics. These neoclassical approaches are rationality, awareness, egoism of behavior. Another series is neoclassical theories, in dialogue with which theories of behavioral economics arose. These are theories of expected utility, game theory, exponential discounted utility, revealed preferences, rational expectations, efficient market. The sequence of development of behavioral economics we presented connects it, a once heterodox branch of science with the mainstream economic thought. The article can serve as a guide to the most important areas of research in behavioral economics. This study systematizes scientific knowledge and establishes methodological links within it.
尽管许多诺贝尔奖得主的名字都与行为经济学有关,但研究人员仍将这一科学分支视为一种非正统的、前卫的研究项目。本文旨在填补这一理论空白,将行为经济学与主流经济思想联系起来,并将行为经济学划分为几个方向——相对于最初的新古典主义方法或理论。在第一行案例中,我们收集了新古典经济学关于经济行为的方法,行为经济学提出了与之相关的替代概念。这些新古典主义的方法是理性,意识,行为的利己主义。另一个系列是新古典主义理论,在与之对话的过程中,行为经济学理论应运而生。这些理论包括预期效用理论,博弈论,指数折现效用理论,显性偏好理论,理性预期理论,有效市场理论。我们提出的行为经济学的发展顺序将它这个曾经的非正统科学分支与主流经济思想联系起来。这篇文章可以作为行为经济学中最重要的研究领域的指南。这项研究使科学知识系统化,并在其中建立了方法论联系。
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引用次数: 0
On the connection between cultural values and personal income taxation 论文化价值观与个人所得税的关系
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_32
L. D. Chargaziya
The article explores the relationship between Hofstede’s cultural dimensions and personal income taxation, as it is, what was never done in the scientific literature. It briefly describes the current level of scientific discourse and history of thought development in this problem field, forming the theoretical basis for substantiating the assumed relationship. Using theoretical reasoning as well as comparative quantitative methods (logistic and linear regression analysis), the paper shows the connection between some of Hofstede’s cultural dimensions (power distance, individualism) and the establishment of progressive income taxation and top marginal tax rates. It is found that lower scores of power distance are associated with progressive income taxation, as well as higher tax rates. In addition, some potential mechanisms underlying this relationship are discussed. It is emphasized that cultural values can have two levers of influence on tax policy (bottom-up and top-down), since both the politicians responsible for designing tax systems and the citizens who shape the redistribution demand carry the national cultural values. The sample under study includes 115 countries at different levels of economic development.
这篇文章探讨了Hofstede的文化维度与个人所得税之间的关系,因为它是科学文献中从未做过的。它简要地描述了这一问题领域的科学话语水平和思想发展史,形成了证实假设关系的理论基础。运用理论推理和比较定量方法(逻辑回归和线性回归分析),本文展示了Hofstede的一些文化维度(权力距离、个人主义)与累进所得税和最高边际税率的建立之间的联系。研究发现,较低的权力距离得分与累进所得税以及较高的税率有关。此外,本文还讨论了这种关系的一些潜在机制。文章强调,文化价值观可以对税收政策产生两种影响(自下而上和自上而下),因为负责设计税收制度的政治家和塑造再分配需求的公民都带有国家文化价值观。研究样本包括115个经济发展水平不同的国家。
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引用次数: 0
Russian-Vietnamese economic cooperation in new conditions 新条件下的俄越经济合作
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_165
Madina O. Turaeva, A. Yakovlev
The article considers the prospects for Russian-Vietnamese economic cooperation in the new geopolitical conditions, forcing Russia to intensify the "turn to the East" policy. It is shown that as a result of the reforms, Vietnam has managed to turn into one of the fastest growing economies in the world, deeply integrated into global production chains and economic ties, pursuing a multi-vector foreign economic policy, balancing between the largest players in the Asia-Pacific region. Despite the historically high level of diplomatic relations between Russia and Vietnam, economic ties between two countries are comparatively poor. It is concluded that the sanctions imposed against Russia by unfriendly countries will negatively affect the prospects for the development of economic relations with Vietnam due to the rise of transaction costs and the risks of secondary sanctions on Vietnamese counterparties. However, an adequate and realistic strategy of reorientation towards interaction with the countries of East and South-East Asia will help Russia to increase economic cooperation with Vietnam, as well as strengthen the development of its own eastern regions.
文章认为,在新的地缘政治条件下,俄越经济合作的前景迫使俄罗斯加强“转向东方”政策。这表明,由于改革的结果,越南已经成功地成为世界上增长最快的经济体之一,深入融入全球生产链和经济联系,追求多元的对外经济政策,在亚太地区最大的参与者之间取得平衡。尽管俄罗斯和越南之间的外交关系处于历史高位,但两国之间的经济联系相对较差。结论是,由于交易成本上升和越南对手方面临二次制裁的风险,不友好国家对俄罗斯的制裁将对越南经济关系的发展前景产生负面影响。然而,一项适当和现实的重新定位与东亚和东南亚国家互动的战略将有助于俄罗斯加强与越南的经济合作,并加强其东部地区的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Russian- Chinese economic links in the context of growing international tensions 俄中经济联系是在国际局势日益紧张的背景下进行的
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_142
Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа
Economic ties between Russia and China have been growing rapidly since the early 2000s. They are becoming an increasingly significant element of international political and economic relations. The high dynamics of mutual relations is due to the combined action of economic, geopolitical and infrastructural factors. Mutual ties reduce the geopolitical risks of the development of national economies and ensure their stability in the face of growing pressure from the West. For Russia, the achievement of large-scale relations with China was a reflection of the departure from the traditional orientation towards Europe. The economies of the PRC and the Russian Federation structurally complement each other. After the implementation of large infrastructure projects, the Russian Federation has managed to use the factor of neighborhood with China more effectively in present context, while the countries border each other with less developed territories. The growth of mutual cooperation affects the formation of specialization and connections of the Russian regions. The shift of the Russian economy to the eastern regions will accelerate due to the development of transport and logistics functions, which will also entail a variety of production functions. The further development of mutual economic relations is determined by the nature of the dynamics of international relations and the level of coordination of the development of national economies.
自21世纪初以来,俄罗斯和中国之间的经济联系一直在迅速发展。它们正在成为国际政治和经济关系中日益重要的因素。相互关系的高度动态是由于经济、地缘政治和基础设施因素的共同作用。相互联系减少了国家经济发展的地缘政治风险,并确保其在面对西方日益增长的压力时保持稳定。对俄罗斯来说,与中国建立大规模关系的成就反映了其对欧洲传统取向的背离。中华人民共和国和俄罗斯联邦的经济在结构上是互补的。在实施大型基础设施项目后,俄罗斯联邦在当前背景下更有效地利用了与中国相邻的因素,而两国之间的边界都是欠发达地区。相互合作的发展影响着俄罗斯地区专业化和联系的形成。由于运输和物流功能的发展,俄罗斯经济将加速向东部地区转移,这也将涉及多种生产功能。相互经济关系的进一步发展取决于国际关系动态的性质和各国经济发展的协调程度。
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引用次数: 0
Long-term forecast of the replacement migration in Russia 俄罗斯替代性移民的长期预测
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_48
Г. Вишневского, Ниу Вшэ, А. Г. Вишневского
The population of Russia was declining since 2018 due to the growth of natural loss and the uneven dynamics of net migration, which only partially compensated for it. In the short term, even the most favorable scenario of Russia’s demographic development, which provides for high levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, leads to a decrease in the population from the current 146.2 to 145.2 million persons in 2026, and only after that point, a growth can be expected. According to the medium and low options, the population will decrease to 137.5 and 84.4 million persons respectively by the end of the century. This makes necessary to calculate a level of the replacement migration, which would compensate the natural decline and maintain the current population of Russia. The cohort-component method was used in forecasting, the population as of 01.01.2021 was taken as the base. Depending on various scenarios of fertility and mortality, the level of annual replacement migration growth in 2021–2023 should correspond to 460–1200 thousand persons, which is 2–6 times higher than suggested by the average, most realistic, migration scenario. The value is also 1.5–4.5 times higher than in high migration scenario. After that, the urgency for replacement migration decreases and from the 2040s, according to the average variant, the net migration will correspond to the upper, optimistic, migration scenario (450–500 thousand persons), which implies a greater probability of achieving it. In 2077, the level of replacement migration intersects with the average scenario of net migration (250 thousand persons), and in the period 2084–2100 corresponds to the lower scenario (60–70 thousand persons). According to the high variant, the level of replacement migration is rapidly decreasing due to a significant increase in fertility and life expectancy and since the late 2030s even in the case of migration decline the population would not shrink. With negative trends of natural movement in the low variant, the level of required replacement migration throughout the forecast period is extremely high and unlikely, 1–1.2 million persons annually, which indicates the impossibility of stabilizing the population in this variant. Higher levels of immigration make possible to recoup the growth of the demographic burden only in the medium term, subsequently, the aging of the arrived contingents of migrants leads to an increase in the demographic burden of the elderly. Thus, to preserve the population, it is necessary to find a balance between relatively easy-to-manage migration flows and solving fundamental issues in the field of reducing mortality and creating favorable conditions for the birth of the desired number of children in families.
自2018年以来,由于自然损失的增加和净移民动态的不平衡,俄罗斯人口一直在下降,这只能部分弥补。在短期内,即使是俄罗斯人口发展最有利的情况,即提供高水平的生育率、预期寿命和移民,也会导致人口从目前的1.462亿人减少到2026年的1.452亿人,只有在这一点之后,才会出现增长。根据中、低选项,到本世纪末,人口将分别减少到1.375万人和8440万人。这就有必要计算一个替代移民的水平,这将弥补自然下降并维持俄罗斯目前的人口。预测采用队列成分法,以2021年1月1日的人口为基数。根据生育率和死亡率的不同情景,2021-2023年的年替代移民增长水平应对应于46 - 12万人,这比平均、最现实的移民情景建议的水平高出2-6倍。是高迁移场景的1.5 ~ 4.5倍。在此之后,替代移民的紧迫性降低,从21世纪40年代开始,根据平均变量,净移民将对应于较高的、乐观的移民情景(45 - 50万人),这意味着实现这一目标的可能性更大。2077年,替代移民水平与净移民的平均情景(25万人)相交,2084-2100年期间对应于较低情景(6 - 7万人)。根据高变量,由于生育率和预期寿命的显著提高,替代移民的水平正在迅速下降,自本世纪30年代末以来,即使在移民减少的情况下,人口也不会减少。由于低变量的自然迁移呈负向趋势,在整个预测期内所需的替代迁移水平非常高,而且不太可能达到每年100 - 120万人,这表明在该变量中不可能稳定人口。较高水平的移民只有在中期才有可能弥补人口负担的增长,随后,抵达的移民队伍的老龄化导致老年人人口负担的增加。因此,为了保护人口,必须在相对容易管理的移徙流动和解决降低死亡率和为家庭中理想数量的儿童的出生创造有利条件方面的基本问题之间找到平衡。
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引用次数: 0
Multilevel liberalization in Korea, or why the Korean market remains diffi cult to penetrate 韩国的多层次自由化,还是韩国市场难以渗透的原因
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_157
I. Korgun
For Russia’s ‘turn to the East’ to be successful it is necessary to promote export of Russian products to East Asian markets. This is rather a complex task, because despite a progressive liberalization of the last three decades East Asian markets remain relatively protected. The current paper deals with a case of the Republic of Korea. It reveals a multi-level approach to market liberalization in the Korean trade policy that step up from elements of preserved nationalism. The multi-level approach allows Korea to protect weak national companies and at the same time create opportunities for international expansion for stronger sectors of its economy. As a result, domestic companies get extra-support that distorts competition. Non-tariff barriers and monopolistic product markets are yet other factors that complicate successful positioning of foreign businesses in Korea. Using an example of a free trade agreement with the European Union research shows that such agreements are more effective for unlocking the Korean market. Besides, Korean government prefers FTAs over multilateral liberalization within WTO because they make it possible to take into account strategic economic interests of each trading partner. The paper concludes with some general recommendations on penetrating into the Korean market that can be useful for Russian companies that are making strategies to enter Korea.
要使俄罗斯“转向东方”取得成功,有必要促进俄罗斯产品向东亚市场的出口。这是一项相当复杂的任务,因为尽管过去三十年来东亚市场逐步自由化,但仍然相对受到保护。本文讨论的是大韩民国的一个案例。它揭示了韩国贸易政策中市场自由化的多层次方法,这些方法是从保留的民族主义元素中逐步发展起来的。这种多层次的方法可以保护弱势的国有企业,同时为实力较强的经济部门创造国际扩张的机会。结果,国内企业得到了额外的支持,扭曲了竞争。非关税壁垒和垄断产品市场是外国企业在韩国成功定位的另一个因素。以与欧盟(eu)的自由贸易协定(fta)为例进行的研究表明,fta对韩国市场的开放效果更好。另外,韩国政府认为,比起WTO内的多边自由化,更倾向于fta,因为fta可以兼顾各国的战略经济利益。本文最后提出了一些关于打入韩国市场的一般性建议,可供制定进军韩国战略的俄罗斯企业参考。
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引用次数: 1
Democratic capital and economic growth in the countries of the third wave of democratization 民主资本与第三波民主化国家的经济增长
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_12
М. А. Пахнин, Р.О. Шаповалов, Журнал Нэа, М. А. Пахнин
In this paper, we study the effect of democracy on economic growth. We provide an overview of theoretical models analyzing the relationship between political regime and economic growth, and characterize the existing empirical results. Theoretical considerations suggest that it is accumulated and not instantaneous level of democracy that affects economic development. In order to capture this idea, we introduce the notion of democratic capital. We estimate the impact of democratic capital on GDP per worker growth rates in a dynamic panel data model from 1990 to 2019 in a sample of 70 countries that have recently transitioned to democracy. Our GMM estimates show that for countries of the third wave of democratization it's capital of democracy has a robustly positive impact on economic growth. The effect of democratic capital is most pronounced in Europe and Latin America, which can be explained by the prevalence of democracy in neighboring countries. Furthermore, the effect of democratic capital is most pronounced in partial democracies than in full or failed democracies, which can be explained by the trade-off between the governmental rent-seeking and public desire for redistribution.
本文主要研究民主对经济增长的影响。我们概述了分析政治制度与经济增长关系的理论模型,并对现有的实证结果进行了描述。从理论上考虑,影响经济发展的是积累而非瞬时的民主水平。为了抓住这个概念,我们引入了民主资本的概念。我们在一个动态面板数据模型中估计了1990年至2019年民主资本对人均GDP增长率的影响,样本包括70个最近向民主过渡的国家。我们的GMM估计表明,对于第三波民主化的国家来说,它的民主资本对经济增长具有强大的积极影响。民主资本的影响在欧洲和拉丁美洲最为明显,这可以用民主在邻国的盛行来解释。此外,民主资本的影响在部分民主国家比在完全民主或失败民主国家更为明显,这可以用政府寻租和公众重新分配愿望之间的权衡来解释。
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引用次数: 0
Russia–India trade relations in terms of increasing geopolitical uncertainty 俄印贸易关系的地缘政治不确定性增加
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_1_149
Китай, Все товары, Япония, Вьетнам, Сша
The article is devoted to exploring of the current state and prospects of Russian-Indian foreign trade relations. Currently, Russia and India are not key partners for each other, since the industrial capabilities of both economies do not contribute to closer ties. Both countries have repeatedly noted the need to increase mutual trade turnover, and serious progress has been achieved in 2022 (primarily due to external factors). India has become one of the beneficiaries of the current geopolitical circumstances, since it has not joined the embargo imposed by Western countries on Russian oil and petroleum products, but, on the contrary, India has increased imports from Russia. The country is demonstrating the independence of its foreign policy, but at the same time, India is in a focus for Western countries (USA, Great Britain, EU countries, Australia and Japan). The authors have identified well-established areas of Russian-Indian cooperation and identified both promising areas for further collaboration and existing problems.
本文旨在探讨俄印对外贸易关系的现状和前景。目前,俄罗斯和印度并不是彼此的主要合作伙伴,因为两国的工业能力都无法促进两国关系的密切。两国多次强调扩大双边贸易额的必要性,并在2022年取得了重大进展(主要是由于外部因素)。印度已成为当前地缘政治环境的受益者之一,因为它没有加入西方国家对俄罗斯石油和石油产品的禁运,但相反,印度增加了从俄罗斯的进口。这个国家正在展示其外交政策的独立性,但与此同时,印度成为西方国家(美国、英国、欧盟国家、澳大利亚和日本)的焦点。作者确定了俄印合作的成熟领域,并确定了进一步合作的有希望的领域和存在的问题。
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引用次数: 0
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Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association
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