Scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions for Russia

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop and quantify possible scenarios for the implementation of climate policy, as well as the opportunities for achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century or earlier. For this purpose, two scenarios are considered — basic and transformational. The baseline scenario includes measures that least affect the existing socio-political and economic interests with the greatest contribution from deforestation, modernization of technologies for the use of hydrocarbons in industry and cleaner transport. The limitations of the baseline scenario will not allow achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century. The transformational scenario takes into account the most realistic options for closing the gap between the offi cial scenario developed by the Government of the Russian Federation shortly before the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference and more ambitious options for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. In our transformational scenario, Russia reaches carbon neutrality 10 years earlier, by 2040, and subsequently turns into a net sink of greenhouse gases, including due to the huge potential of forest plantations.