Long cycles, the soviet authority and economists: From the history of discussions of the 1920s

Abstract

In perspective of intellectual history, the article studies Soviet discussions on long cycles. The study analyzes in detail the connection between Kondratiev’s economic and epistemological ideas, as well as the connection between the debate on long cycles and the political conjuncture of the 1920s. In particular, the article shows that criticism from L. D. Trotsky and Soviet economists prompted N. D. Kondratiev to turn to the issue of epistemology. The article also shows that we should not take the methodological criticism of Kondratiev’s opponents seriously because they were biased against him. In the mid-1920s, Soviet economists’ negative attitude to the idea of long cycles refl ects the conflict between N. D. Kondratiev and employees of the State Planning Committee, which escalated under the influence of the inner-party struggle. The attention of L. D. Trotsky, in its turn, was attracted to the idea of long cycle in connection with forecasts both attributed to N. D. Kondratiev and those formulated by him. The article publishes a previously unknown forecast, declared by N. D. Kondratiev in 1926, about the upcoming economic crisis and the dynamics of military and social conflicts at the turn of the decades.