{"title":"Are Greek government deficit and debt statistics reliable","authors":"J. Loizides","doi":"10.3233/JEM-130367","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to analyze the statistical properties of the Greek government deficit and debt figures compiled and reported to the European Commission since 1994 for the period 1991 to 2012. On the basis of successive revisions in reported data, it assesses the reliability of budgetary statistics and derives a number of reliability indicators. According to the standard deviations of revisions between the first outturn and final data, Greece have reported the least reliable deficit figures and have had the largest dispersion of revisions. The paper has also shown that data on the yearly changes in debt have been less reliable than those on the deficit. Whatever the cause of these findings, we believe that they create problems for users of the data.","PeriodicalId":53705,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic and Social Measurement","volume":"38 1","pages":"79-95"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2013-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/JEM-130367","citationCount":"6","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic and Social Measurement","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JEM-130367","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze the statistical properties of the Greek government deficit and debt figures compiled and reported to the European Commission since 1994 for the period 1991 to 2012. On the basis of successive revisions in reported data, it assesses the reliability of budgetary statistics and derives a number of reliability indicators. According to the standard deviations of revisions between the first outturn and final data, Greece have reported the least reliable deficit figures and have had the largest dispersion of revisions. The paper has also shown that data on the yearly changes in debt have been less reliable than those on the deficit. Whatever the cause of these findings, we believe that they create problems for users of the data.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement (JESM) is a quarterly journal that is concerned with the investigation of all aspects of production, distribution and use of economic and other societal statistical data, and with the use of computers in that context. JESM publishes articles that consider the statistical methodology of economic and social science measurements. It is concerned with the methods and problems of data distribution, including the design and implementation of data base systems and, more generally, computer software and hardware for distributing and accessing statistical data files. Its focus on computer software also includes the valuation of algorithms and their implementation, assessing the degree to which particular algorithms may yield more or less accurate computed results. It addresses the technical and even legal problems of the collection and use of data, legislation and administrative actions affecting government produced or distributed data files, and similar topics. The journal serves as a forum for the exchange of information and views between data producers and users. In addition, it considers the various uses to which statistical data may be put, particularly to the degree that these uses illustrate or affect the properties of the data. The data considered in JESM are usually economic or social, as mentioned, but this is not a requirement; the editorial policies of JESM do not place a priori restrictions upon the data that might be considered within individual articles. Furthermore, there are no limitations concerning the source of the data.
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