A note on spurious seasonal patterns and other distortions in the BLS local area unemployment statistics

Q3 Social Sciences Journal of Economic and Social Measurement Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI:10.3233/JEM-140389

K. Phillips, Jianguo Wang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper examines the potential sources behind statistically significant seasonal patterns in the state level seasonally adjusted Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We find that these seasonal patterns are likely spurious and may be due to the pro-rata factors used in benchmarking the states to census regions and national totals. In addition we find that the Henderson 13 filter used by the BLS to smooth the seasonally adjusted state data often makes the data inconsistent with national labor market data. We conclude that the BLS should use seasonally adjusted data when estimating the pro-rata factors used to benchmark states to regional and national totals.

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关于劳工统计局当地失业统计中虚假的季节性模式和其他扭曲的说明

本文研究了美国劳工统计局(BLS)发布的州一级季节性调整的当地失业统计(LAUS)中统计显著季节性模式背后的潜在来源。我们发现这些季节性模式很可能是虚假的，可能是由于在将各州与人口普查地区和全国总数进行基准比较时使用的比例因素。此外，我们发现劳工统计局用于平滑季节性调整的州数据的亨德森13过滤器经常使数据与全国劳动力市场数据不一致。我们得出的结论是，劳工统计局在估计用于将各州与地区和全国总数作为基准的比例因素时，应该使用经季节性调整的数据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic and Social Measurement Social Sciences-Social Sciences (all)

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement (JESM) is a quarterly journal that is concerned with the investigation of all aspects of production, distribution and use of economic and other societal statistical data, and with the use of computers in that context. JESM publishes articles that consider the statistical methodology of economic and social science measurements. It is concerned with the methods and problems of data distribution, including the design and implementation of data base systems and, more generally, computer software and hardware for distributing and accessing statistical data files. Its focus on computer software also includes the valuation of algorithms and their implementation, assessing the degree to which particular algorithms may yield more or less accurate computed results. It addresses the technical and even legal problems of the collection and use of data, legislation and administrative actions affecting government produced or distributed data files, and similar topics. The journal serves as a forum for the exchange of information and views between data producers and users. In addition, it considers the various uses to which statistical data may be put, particularly to the degree that these uses illustrate or affect the properties of the data. The data considered in JESM are usually economic or social, as mentioned, but this is not a requirement; the editorial policies of JESM do not place a priori restrictions upon the data that might be considered within individual articles. Furthermore, there are no limitations concerning the source of the data.