{"title":"Currency Momentum: An Emerging Market Issue?","authors":"Maik Schober, Matthias Gehrke","doi":"10.35944/jofrp.2022.11.1.007","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Three main currency strategies have been established in the literature: carry, value, and momentum. We investigate momentum using data on 27 currencies (10 developed countries and 17 emerging markets). We find that momentum returns are driven by emerging market currencies, while the currencies of developed countries have no impact. An emerging market- specific dollar risk factor can partly explain these momentum returns. We carry out permutation tests and find support for our hypothesis that momentum returns are driven by emerging markets. However, we show that transaction costs reduce momentum returns considerably. We also show that the returns are time-varying and have been unattractive recently. The implications of this study for financial practitioners are to focus on emerging market currencies and optimise transaction costs when executing momentum strategies.","PeriodicalId":37351,"journal":{"name":"ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.35944/jofrp.2022.11.1.007","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Decision Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Three main currency strategies have been established in the literature: carry, value, and momentum. We investigate momentum using data on 27 currencies (10 developed countries and 17 emerging markets). We find that momentum returns are driven by emerging market currencies, while the currencies of developed countries have no impact. An emerging market- specific dollar risk factor can partly explain these momentum returns. We carry out permutation tests and find support for our hypothesis that momentum returns are driven by emerging markets. However, we show that transaction costs reduce momentum returns considerably. We also show that the returns are time-varying and have been unattractive recently. The implications of this study for financial practitioners are to focus on emerging market currencies and optimise transaction costs when executing momentum strategies.
期刊介绍：
This journal is special because it aims to provide an outlet for inter-disciplinary and more in-depth research papers with various methodological approaches from the broad fields of Finance, Risk and Accounting. The target group of this journal are academics who want to get a better understanding of the interconnectedness of their fields by acknowledging the methods and theories used in closely related areas. The JOFRP thus aims to overcome the self-imposed paradigmatic boundaries and reflexive isomorphisms of the individual, typically rather narrow fields and invites new and combined perspectives from the fields of Finance, Risk and Accounting. Despite its methodological, topical and disciplinary openness - it does so with a strong focus on academic rigour and robustness. Articles can vary in size and approaches but all articles will be strictly double-blind peer reviewed and authors are frequently invited to discuss the ramifications of their articles in the global FRAP and SSFII conferences.
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