{"title":"A Wiener process with jumps to model the logarithm of new epidemic cases","authors":"M. Lefebvre","doi":"10.3934/biophy.2022023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The number of daily new cases of an epidemic is assumed to evolve as the exponential of a Wiener process with Poissonian jumps that are exponentially distributed. The model parameters can be estimated by using the method of moments. In an application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the province of Québec, Canada, the proposed model is shown to be acceptable. General formulas for the probability that a given increase in the number of daily new cases is due to the normal variations of the continuous part of the process or rather to a jump of this process are given. Based on these formulas, the probability of observing the likely start of a new wave of infections is calculated for the application to the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":7529,"journal":{"name":"AIMS Biophysics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"AIMS Biophysics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3934/biophy.2022023","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BIOPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
The number of daily new cases of an epidemic is assumed to evolve as the exponential of a Wiener process with Poissonian jumps that are exponentially distributed. The model parameters can be estimated by using the method of moments. In an application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the province of Québec, Canada, the proposed model is shown to be acceptable. General formulas for the probability that a given increase in the number of daily new cases is due to the normal variations of the continuous part of the process or rather to a jump of this process are given. Based on these formulas, the probability of observing the likely start of a new wave of infections is calculated for the application to the COVID-19 pandemic.
期刊介绍：
AIMS Biophysics is an international Open Access journal devoted to publishing peer-reviewed, high quality, original papers in the field of biophysics. We publish the following article types: original research articles, reviews, editorials, letters, and conference reports. AIMS Biophysics welcomes, but not limited to, the papers from the following topics: · Structural biology · Biophysical technology · Bioenergetics · Membrane biophysics · Cellular Biophysics · Electrophysiology · Neuro-Biophysics · Biomechanics · Systems biology
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