{"title":"The potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa","authors":"L. Johnson, R. Dorrington","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24509","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a model for assessing the potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa, and for calculating the amount of vaccine that would be required. A number of different hypothetical vaccine profiles and vaccine distribution strategies are considered. Results suggest that a sterilising vaccine could reduce the HIV incidence between 2015 and 2025 by up to 50%, while a disease-modifying vaccine would be unlikely to reduce HIV incidence by more than a third. The effect on AIDS mortality over the same period would be substantially smaller, and it is unlikely that any preventive vaccine would reduce AIDS mortality by more than 10% between 2015 and 2025.","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.1000,"publicationDate":"2007-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"South African Actuarial Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24509","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper presents a model for assessing the potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa, and for calculating the amount of vaccine that would be required. A number of different hypothetical vaccine profiles and vaccine distribution strategies are considered. Results suggest that a sterilising vaccine could reduce the HIV incidence between 2015 and 2025 by up to 50%, while a disease-modifying vaccine would be unlikely to reduce HIV incidence by more than a third. The effect on AIDS mortality over the same period would be substantially smaller, and it is unlikely that any preventive vaccine would reduce AIDS mortality by more than 10% between 2015 and 2025.
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