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Anti-selection in voluntary health insurance markets: A focus on medical schemes in South Africa 自愿健康保险市场中的反选择:对南非医疗计划的关注
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.4314/saaj.v21i1.5
R. Harris, S. Besesar
This paper discusses the role of voluntary health insurance (VHI) in relation to public healthcare systems and universal health coverage (UHC). The paper explores why VHI markets are particularly susceptible to anti-selection. As the largest VHI market globally, the South African medical scheme market is then examined in detail. An overview of the history of the South African healthcare system provides insight into the development of the medical scheme market. Thereafter, an analysis on the impact of anti-selection on medical schemes is conducted using the experience from the largest open medical scheme in the market. The results demonstrate how existing risk mitigation measures are ineffective at protecting medical schemes from the effects of anti-selection, and the subsequent negative impacts of this phenomenon on the industry and the healthcare system as a whole. The paper discusses alternative mechanisms for addressing anti-selection risks and concludes that mandatory membership in some form has the potential to improve the sustainability of medical schemes in South Africa, which will in turn support the country’s transition towards UHC.
本文讨论了自愿健康保险(VHI)在公共医疗系统和全民健康保险(UHC)中的作用。这篇论文探讨了为什么VHI市场特别容易受到反选择的影响。作为全球最大的VHI市场,南非医疗计划市场将受到详细审查。通过对南非医疗体系历史的概述,可以深入了解医疗计划市场的发展。然后,利用市场上最大的开放医疗计划的经验,分析了反选择对医疗计划的影响。研究结果表明,现有的风险缓解措施在保护医疗计划免受反选择影响方面是无效的,以及这一现象对行业和整个医疗系统的负面影响。该论文讨论了解决反选择风险的替代机制,并得出结论,以某种形式强制加入有可能提高南非医疗计划的可持续性,这反过来将支持该国向全民健康保险过渡。
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引用次数: 0
A history and forecast of the South African life tables No. E1 to No. E9 南非生命表的历史和预测。E1 ~ No。E9
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.4314/saaj.v21i1.1
G. Whittaker
During the 20th century, government statistical departments in South Africa produced nine complete life tables for the white population group, seven complete life tables for the coloured population group, six complete life tables for the Asian population group and no complete life tables for the African population group. As of 2020, the South African Life Tables 1979/1981 for the white population group are still used in capitalising pensions in terms of the Compensation for Occupational Injuries and Diseases Act No. 130 of 1993. Similarly, the South African Life Tables 1984/1986 for the white population group are still used extensively in damages calculations by South African actuaries. This paper provides a historical record of the nine complete life tables for the white population group and provides a forecast of those tables to 2020. The aim of the forecast is to provide an estimate for current white population mortality rates which could then serve as a non-racial mortality basis for damages claims. It also aims to complement the work of demographers in their development of new population tables based on more sophisticated demographic techniques.
在20世纪,南非政府统计部门为白人群体制作了9个完整的生命表,为有色人种群体制作了7个完整的生命表,为亚洲人口群体制作了6个完整的生命表,而非洲人口群体没有制作完整的生命表。截至2020年,根据1993年第130号《职业伤害和疾病赔偿法》,仍使用《1979/1981年南非白人生命表》将养恤金资本化。同样,南非精算师在计算损害赔偿时仍然广泛使用1984/1986年白人人口群体的南非生命表。本文提供了9个完整的白人生命表的历史记录,并提供了到2020年这些表的预测。预测的目的是对目前的白人人口死亡率作出估计,然后作为赔偿要求的非种族死亡率依据。它还旨在补充人口统计学家根据更复杂的人口技术编制新的人口表的工作。
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引用次数: 0
The actuary as amicus curiae 现在好奇的朋友
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.4314/saaj.v22i1.3
G. Whittaker
The role of an amicus curiae as a party to litigation is closely linked to promoting constitutional values and protecting the public interest. There is no question that interventions by amici curiae have played a critical role in aiding the judiciary in many public interest cases. The Actuarial Society of South Africa is prioritising its focus on advancing issues of public interest and serving a broader spectrum of the populace. However, it has yet to utilise this specific mechanism to manifest this mandate. The Actuarial Society of South Africa can provide a numerical perspective on various rights disputes deriving from the Constitution. In contrast, the courts have asked other professional bodies, such as the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants, to join proceedings. Actuarial bodies, particularly those in the United States of America, are actively involved in public interest matters and occasionally join amicus curiae proceedings. Following an exploration of the use of amici curiae in South African and African courts, this paper seeks to identify a test case where the Actuarial Society of South Africa may join proceedings as a friend of the court. The mechanism and procedure for joining the court as an amicus curiae and the risks and benefits of joining proceedings are examined.
法庭之友作为诉讼当事人的作用与促进宪法价值观和保护公共利益密切相关。毫无疑问,法庭之友的干预在协助司法部门处理许多公共利益案件方面发挥了关键作用。南非精算学会(Actuarial Society of South Africa)正将重点放在推进公共利益问题上,并为更广泛的民众服务。然而,它尚未利用这一具体机制来体现这一授权。南非精算协会可以从数字角度看待《宪法》引发的各种权利纠纷。相比之下,法院已要求南非特许会计师协会等其他专业机构加入诉讼程序。精算机构,特别是美利坚合众国的精算机构,积极参与公共利益事务,偶尔也会加入法庭之友程序。在探索了法庭之友在南非和非洲法院的使用之后,本文试图确定一个测试案例,在该案例中,南非精算协会可以作为法院之友加入诉讼程序。审查了作为法庭之友加入法院的机制和程序,以及加入诉讼程序的风险和好处。
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引用次数: 0
Updated remarriage contingency deductions for widowed South Africans 最新的南非丧偶者再婚意外扣除额
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.4314/saaj.v21i1.3
A. Channa, J. Yuan, Mbj Carswell
Where a widowed person has a legal claim for support following the death of their spouse, their compensation may be reduced to allow for the possibility of remarriage. This reduction, known as a remarriage contingency, accounts for both the probability of remarriage and the change in financial status on remarriage. The only South African tables available are viewed as outdated and focus only on widows. This research uses data from the National Income Dynamics Survey to find updated remarriage contingencies for South African widows and widowers. The data indicate that age and race may influence the remarriage probabilities although this result may have been influenced by poor income and child data. The remarriage contingencies calculated were lower than the old tables for widowed whites and younger coloureds but higher for widowed Africans, Asians and older coloureds. The remarriage contingencies calculated were high relative to the general post-settlement contingency of 15% suggesting that there may still be scope for an explicit remarriage contingency.
如果丧偶的人在其配偶去世后有合法的赡养要求,他们的赔偿可能会减少,以考虑再婚的可能性。这种减少被称为再婚偶然性,既考虑了再婚的可能性,也考虑了再婚后经济状况的变化。南非唯一可用的表格被认为已经过时,只关注寡妇。这项研究使用了国家收入动态调查的数据,为南非寡妇和鳏夫寻找最新的再婚意外情况。数据表明,年龄和种族可能会影响再婚概率,尽管这一结果可能受到低收入和儿童数据的影响。对于寡居的白人和年轻有色人种,计算出的再婚意外事件低于旧表,但对于寡居非洲、亚洲人和年长有色人种,则更高。相对于15%的一般安置后意外事故,计算出的再婚意外事故较高,这表明可能仍有明确再婚意外事故的空间。
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引用次数: 0
Quantitative guidelines for retiring (more safely) in South Africa 南非退休(更安全)的数量指南
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.4314/saaj.v21i1.4
Vaughan van Appel, E. Maré, Andries Van Niekerk
In this paper we present guidelines for safe withdrawal rates from a living annuity (income drawdown accounts), periodically, to cover living expenses. In essence, a retiree is faced with the risk management problem of outliving their retirement fund (withdrawing too much) versus living below their means (withdrawing too little). The empirical evidence in the literature advocates for a ‘safe’ 4% annual withdrawal (or spending) rate. Therefore, the object of this paper is to examine withdrawal rates for retirees in the South African economy. Furthermore, we carry out a simulation study using historical data while incorporating longevity and fund management fees. Our analysis emphasises the risks associated with different withdrawal rates and asset allocations. We then give an example of how derivative instruments can increase the success rate of a retirement portfolio.
在本文中,我们提出了从生活年金(收入提款账户)中定期提取安全提款率的指导方针,以支付生活费用。从本质上讲,退休人员面临的风险管理问题是:活得比他们的退休基金长(取得太多),还是量入为出(取得太少)。文献中的经验证据主张每年4%的提现(或支出)率是“安全的”。因此,本文的目的是研究南非经济中退休人员的提款率。此外,我们使用历史数据进行模拟研究,同时纳入寿命和基金管理费。我们的分析强调了与不同提款率和资产配置相关的风险。然后,我们给出一个衍生工具如何提高退休投资组合成功率的例子。
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引用次数: 1
Suitability of the 2.5% net discount rate for quantum of damage calculations in South Africa 2.5%净贴现率在南非用于损失量计算的适用性
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.4314/saaj.v22i1.1
F. Koning, JP Swanepoel, JD Brits, E. Maré
This study is on the 2.5% real discount rate used to calculate the lump sum payment in the event of a compensation claim. The aptness of this 2.5% real discount rate is assessed through a statistical analysis of government bonds and inflation data over the past 59 years. The investigation yields evidence that the discount rate over the last 59 years may be mean reverting and would be a good approximation to use in the future. Also, an interesting relationship was found between the introduction of inflation targeting in the year 2000 and the stationarity of the series. It must be considered that the timing and duration of variation from the 2.5% cannot be predicted, but reversion to the series mean seems to always occur. The practice of using the 2.5% in the South African context is also compared to other practices globally. Finally, circumstances for the departure from the 2.5% discount rate are investigated, with some suggestions.
这项研究是在2.5%的实际贴现率用于计算一次性付款的赔偿索赔的事件。2.5%的实际贴现率是否合适,是通过对过去59年的政府债券和通胀数据的统计分析来评估的。调查得出的证据表明,过去59年的贴现率可能是均值回归,并将是一个很好的近似值,在未来使用。此外,在2000年引入通货膨胀目标制与该系列的平稳性之间发现了一个有趣的关系。必须考虑到,从2.5%变化的时间和持续时间是无法预测的,但似乎总是会发生向序列均值的回归。南非使用2.5%的做法也与全球其他做法进行了比较。最后,对偏离2.5%贴现率的情况进行了调查,并提出了一些建议。
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引用次数: 0
‘Where angels fear to tread’—Reflections on the role of an actuary as expert witness in the Land Claims Court “天使不敢涉足的地方”——对土地索赔法庭精算师作为专家证人角色的思考
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.4314/saaj.v22i1.2
MW Lowther
In this paper, the author reflects on his experiences of giving expert actuarial witness in the Land Claims Court regarding the calculation of financial compensation as an alternative to the restoration of dispossessed land. As no specific formula for compensation has been legislated in South Africa’s land reform programme, relevant case histories are examined in which the common law has been developed. The technical, ethical and professional inputs which an actuary can provide are reviewed. The author concludes that actuaries are well suited to assist the Land Claims Court to resolve the potentially large number of claims, and that this will be in the public interest.
在本文中,提交人回顾了他在土地索赔法院就经济补偿的计算作为恢复被剥夺土地的替代方案提供专家精算证人的经验。由于南非土地改革方案中没有制定具体的补偿公式,因此对制定普通法的相关案例进行了审查。对精算师可以提供的技术、道德和专业投入进行审查。提交人的结论是,精算师非常适合协助土地索赔法院解决潜在的大量索赔,这将符合公众利益。
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引用次数: 0
An economic scenario generator for embedded derivatives in South Africa 南非嵌入式衍生品的经济情景生成器
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.4314/saaj.v22i1.4
A. Levendis, E. Maré
It is well known that interest rate risk is a dominating factor when pricing long-dated contingent claims. The Heston stochastic volatility model fails to capture this risk as the model assumes a constant interest rate throughout the life of the claim. To overcome this, the risk-free interest rate can be modelled by a Hull-White short rate process and can be combined with the Heston stochastic volatility model to form the so-called Heston-Hull-White model. The Heston-Hull-White model allows for correlation between the equity and interest rate processes, a component that is important when pricing long-dated contingent claims. In this paper, we apply the Heston-Hull-White model to price Guaranteed Minimum Maturity Benefits (GMMBs) and Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits (GMDBs) offered in the life insurance industry in South Africa. We propose a further extension by including stochastic mortality rates based on either a continuous-time Cox-Ingersoll-Ross short rate process or a discrete-time AR(1)-ARCH(1) model. Our findings suggest that stochastic interest rates are the dominating factor when reserving for GMMB and GMDB products. Furthermore, a delta-hedging strategy can help reduce the variability of embedded derivative liabilities.
众所周知,利率风险是长期或有债权定价的主要因素。赫斯顿随机波动模型未能捕捉到这种风险,因为该模型假设在整个索赔期内利率不变。为了克服这一点,无风险利率可以通过赫尔-怀特短期利率过程来建模,并可以与赫斯顿随机波动模型相结合,形成所谓的赫斯顿-赫尔-怀特模型。赫斯顿-赫尔-怀特模型考虑了股权和利率过程之间的相关性,这是为长期或有债权定价时的重要组成部分。本文运用Heston-Hull-White模型对南非人寿保险行业提供的保证最低到期收益(gmmb)和保证最低死亡收益(gmdb)进行定价。我们提出了一个进一步的扩展,包括基于连续时间Cox-Ingersoll-Ross短期利率过程或离散时间AR(1)-ARCH(1)模型的随机死亡率。我们的研究结果表明,随机利率是GMMB和GMDB产品储备的主导因素。此外,delta对冲策略可以帮助降低嵌入衍生品负债的可变性。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of giving and receiving remittances on life insurance purchases 汇款的发放和接收对人寿保险购买的影响
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.4314/saaj.v21i1.2
H. Jeaven, R. Wapnick, Mbj Carswell
Remittance arrangements, or inter-household transfers in cash or kind, have been identified as an influential factor in funeral insurance purchase decisions of South African households. On the one hand, remittances can alter income and higher levels of income are associated with more insurance purchases. On the other hand, remittances can act as an informal insurance arrangement reducing formal insurance purchases. It was found using data from the fifth wave of the National Income Dynamics Study that remittances did not have a strong effect on life insurance purchases generally although for young, low-income, unbanked African and other households, receiving remittances may have discouraged life insurance purchases.
汇款安排,或现金或实物的家庭间转账,已被确定为南非家庭购买葬礼保险决定的一个影响因素。一方面,汇款可以改变收入,更高的收入水平与更多的保险购买有关。另一方面,汇款可以作为一种非正式的保险安排,减少正式的保险购买。使用第五波国民收入动态研究的数据发现,汇款对人寿保险的购买总体上没有太大影响,尽管对于年轻、低收入、没有银行账户的非洲和其他家庭来说,收到汇款可能会阻碍购买人寿保险。
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引用次数: 0
Sustaining the life insurance industry in the Fourth Industrial Revolution 在第四次工业革命中维持人寿保险业
IF 0.2 Pub Date : 2021-01-28 DOI: 10.4314/SAAJ.V20I1.4
Lynn Molloy, L. Ronnie
As the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) continues to change the ways of doing business across industries, organisations around the world are grappling with the unprecedented challenges imposed by radical and widespread technological change. In the face of this dilemma, the South African life insurance industry has remained remarkably resilient, exhibiting very little adaptation in terms of structural, cultural, or business model innovation. However, the stable environmental conditions that once enabled this position for incumbent organisations are weakening.  Transformational change, like that in the adjacent financial services industry, is imminent and adaptation on the part of incumbent insurers will be vital to sustaining relevance. This research examines the organisational beliefs and capabilities of South African insurance companies regarding the 4IR in order to gauge the current challenges within the broader industry. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 senior leaders and decisionmakers from across the industry. A qualitative inductive analysis shows the inhibitors and enablers of digital innovation within the organisations. The pervasive lack of trust, agility, and urgency within the sector are cited as inhibitors of digital innovation. Enablers include a continuous learning mindset within the organisation, partnerships within the broader ecosystem, and the role of senior leaders for shaping cultural attitudes and structures. Overall, these findings show a disparity between what insurers know they must do to proactively lead change, enact digital innovation, and remain relevant, and what they are actually executing. Recommendations are provided for addressing this gap. Keywords: Fourth Industrial Revolution; life insurance; strategy; leadership; agility
随着第四次工业革命(4IR)继续改变各行业的经营方式,世界各地的组织都在努力应对激进和广泛的技术变革带来的前所未有的挑战。面对这种困境,南非人寿保险业仍然保持着非凡的韧性,在结构、文化或商业模式创新方面几乎没有表现出适应能力。然而,曾经为现任组织提供这一职位的稳定环境条件正在减弱。变革迫在眉睫,就像邻近的金融服务业一样,现任保险公司的适应对保持相关性至关重要。这项研究考察了南非保险公司对4IR的组织信念和能力,以衡量当前整个行业面临的挑战。对来自整个行业的12位高级领导和决策者进行了半结构化访谈。定性归纳分析显示了组织内部数字创新的阻碍因素和推动者。该行业普遍缺乏信任、灵活性和紧迫性,被认为是数字创新的阻碍因素。促成因素包括组织内的持续学习心态、更广泛生态系统内的伙伴关系,以及高级领导人在塑造文化态度和结构方面的作用。总的来说,这些发现表明,保险公司知道他们必须做些什么来积极领导变革、实施数字创新并保持相关性,与他们实际执行的内容之间存在差异。提出了解决这一差距的建议。关键词:第四次工业革命;人寿保险;策略领导敏捷性
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引用次数: 1
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South African Actuarial Journal
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