One year of RST based satellite thermal monitoring over two Italian seismic areas

Abstract

In this study, Earth’s emitted Thermal InfraRed (TIR) radiation measured from geostationary satellite sensors has been analyzed by using an original data analysis approach in order to evaluate possible space-time correlation with earthquakes (M≥4.0) occurrence. A clear definition of SSTA (Significant Sequence of Thermal Anomaly) concept is given and correlation rules are established in order to evaluate the potential of SSTAs among the parameters to be included in a pre-operational system for timeDependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH). On the considered time period (July 2012 June 2013) and testing areas (Italian southern Apennines and Po Plain) a false positive rate lesser than 33% has been obtained. Notwithstanding a missing rate up to 67% (mostly because of the presence of clouds preventing the continuity of observations), as confirmed by other independent studies performed on longer period of time and different geographic areas, seems to strongly support the inclusion of SSTAs [identified by the RST (Robust Satellite Technique) methodology] among the parameters whose continuous monitoring and integration with all the other relevant information available, could strongly improve our present capabilities to dynamically assess seismic hazard in a pre-operational context.