Predicting a Migration Transition in Poland and its Implications for Population Ageing

A. Fihel, A. Janicka, M. Okólski
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Abstract

Poland, traditionally a country of emigration, started to record a positive migration balance in recent years. However, thus far, no forecast has indicated the possibility of Poland’s transition from a net sending to a net receiving regime. This study indicates the theoretical underpinnings of such a change and provides an international migration projection. To this end, we refer to the historical experiences of other European countries, more advanced in terms of the Demographic Transition (DT), Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and Migration Transition. We develop a deterministic migration projection of four types of flow (the in-and out-migration of nationals and foreign citizens) up until 2060, combined with the United Nations’ Bayesian probabilistic models of fertility and mortality projections. The results show that Poland will evolve from having a net sending to having a net receiving status around 2030–2034. The combined effect of migration flows on population ageing will not be significant but, in the long run, when considered separately, the four types of flow will have non-negligible, though opposite, effects: the outflows will contribute to population rejuvenation, while the inflows will accelerate population ageing.
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预测波兰的移民过渡及其对人口老龄化的影响
波兰是一个传统的移民国家,近年来开始出现积极的移民平衡。然而,到目前为止,还没有任何预测表明波兰有可能从净输出国转变为净输入国。这项研究指出了这种变化的理论基础,并提供了一个国际移民预测。为此,我们参考了其他欧洲国家在人口转型(DT)、第二次人口转型(SDT)和移民转型方面更为先进的历史经验。我们结合联合国生育率和死亡率预测的贝叶斯概率模型,对四种类型的流动(国民和外国公民的迁入和迁出)进行了确定性的迁移预测,直至2060年。结果表明,波兰将在2030-2034年左右从净发送状态演变为净接收状态。移民流动对人口老龄化的综合影响并不显著,但从长远来看,如果单独考虑,这四种流动将产生不可忽视的,尽管相反的影响:流出将有助于人口复兴,而流入将加速人口老龄化。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
11.80%
发文量
0
审稿时长
9 weeks
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