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Predicting a Migration Transition in Poland and its Implications for Population Ageing 预测波兰的移民过渡及其对人口老龄化的影响
IF 1.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.15
A. Fihel, A. Janicka, M. Okólski
Poland, traditionally a country of emigration, started to record a positive migration balance in recent years. However, thus far, no forecast has indicated the possibility of Poland’s transition from a net sending to a net receiving regime. This study indicates the theoretical underpinnings of such a change and provides an international migration projection. To this end, we refer to the historical experiences of other European countries, more advanced in terms of the Demographic Transition (DT), Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and Migration Transition. We develop a deterministic migration projection of four types of flow (the in-and out-migration of nationals and foreign citizens) up until 2060, combined with the United Nations’ Bayesian probabilistic models of fertility and mortality projections. The results show that Poland will evolve from having a net sending to having a net receiving status around 2030–2034. The combined effect of migration flows on population ageing will not be significant but, in the long run, when considered separately, the four types of flow will have non-negligible, though opposite, effects: the outflows will contribute to population rejuvenation, while the inflows will accelerate population ageing.
波兰是一个传统的移民国家,近年来开始出现积极的移民平衡。然而,到目前为止,还没有任何预测表明波兰有可能从净输出国转变为净输入国。这项研究指出了这种变化的理论基础,并提供了一个国际移民预测。为此,我们参考了其他欧洲国家在人口转型(DT)、第二次人口转型(SDT)和移民转型方面更为先进的历史经验。我们结合联合国生育率和死亡率预测的贝叶斯概率模型,对四种类型的流动(国民和外国公民的迁入和迁出)进行了确定性的迁移预测,直至2060年。结果表明,波兰将在2030-2034年左右从净发送状态演变为净接收状态。移民流动对人口老龄化的综合影响并不显著,但从长远来看,如果单独考虑,这四种流动将产生不可忽视的,尽管相反的影响:流出将有助于人口复兴,而流入将加速人口老龄化。
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引用次数: 0
Volpower Panel of Integration Discussion Volpower整合讨论小组
IF 1.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.13
A. Favell, J. Fox, K. Mahendran, J. Phillimore, P. Scholten, U. Korkut, Doga Atalay, M. Nicolson
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引用次数: 0
Following the EU Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine? The Implementation of the Temporary Protection Directive in Poland 继欧盟对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的反应之后?临时保护指令在波兰的实施
IF 1.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.14
Maja Łysienia
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引用次数: 0
The Situation of Forced Migrants from Ukraine in Europe after Russian Military Aggression and the Problems of Ukraine’s Migration Policy in These New Conditions 俄罗斯军事侵略后乌克兰被迫移民在欧洲的处境及新形势下乌克兰移民政策的问题
IF 1.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.17
Olexii Pozniak
This article assesses the situation of forced migrants from Ukraine in European countries. I use data from the Statistical Bureaux and sociological institutions of Ukraine and recipient countries and from international organisations. Semi-structured interviews with experts were conducted in order to expand the information base of the research and obtain more substantiated analytical results and the trends of forced migration from Ukraine since 24 February 2022 were investigated. An attempt was made to explain the difference between the data from various sources regarding the migration of Ukrainians caused by the Russian war against Ukraine. The hierarchy of problems of forced migrants from Ukraine is determined on the base of in-depth interviews of experts. An attempt was made to estimate the impact of the forced migration of Ukrainians on local markets of goods and services. The recommendations for minimising the irreversible migration losses of the population of Ukraine are developed.
本文评估了乌克兰被迫移民在欧洲国家的情况。我使用的数据来自乌克兰和受援国的统计局和社会学机构以及国际组织。为了扩大研究的信息库并获得更有根据的分析结果,对专家进行了半结构化访谈,并调查了自2022年2月24日以来被迫从乌克兰迁移的趋势。有人试图解释关于俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争造成的乌克兰人迁移的各种来源的数据之间的差异。在对专家进行深入访谈的基础上,确定了乌克兰被迫移民问题的等级。曾试图估计乌克兰人被迫移徙对当地商品和服务市场的影响。制定了尽量减少乌克兰人口不可逆转的移徙损失的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Multifaceted Hospitality. The Micro-Dynamics of Host–Guest Relations in Polish Homes after 24 February 2022 多方面的款待。2022年2月24日之后波兰家庭主客关系的微观动态
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.19
Kamil Luczaj
Hosting large numbers of refugees in private homes rather than in refugee camps is a fairly unusual phenomenon in the broadly understood Western context, including the post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, explorative research is much needed to determine the fundamental problems triggered by this novel situation. Based on a series of individual in-depth interviews with Polish hosts who invited Ukrainian refugees to live in their homes, this paper puts under scrutiny the micro-relations between the hosts and the guests. The study identified 6 kinds of ‘difficulty’, including (1) negotiating everyday routines, (2) dealing with difficult life situations and stress, (3) quarrels and divisions among migrants, (4) neglecting one’s own family, (5) a too strong emotional attachment to the guests and (6) irreconcilable sets of expectations.
在广泛理解的西方背景下,包括中欧和东欧的后社会主义国家,将大量难民安置在私人住宅而不是难民营是一种相当不寻常的现象。因此,探索性研究是非常必要的,以确定这种新情况引发的根本问题。本文通过对邀请乌克兰难民入住的波兰主人的一系列个人深度采访,审视了主人和客人之间的微观关系。该研究确定了6种“困难”,包括(1)处理日常事务,(2)处理困难的生活状况和压力,(3)移民之间的争吵和分歧,(4)忽视自己的家庭,(5)对客人的情感依恋过于强烈,(6)不可调和的期望。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond Integration: A Re-Evaluation of Migrant and Host Society Relations 超越融合:移民与收容社会关系的再评价
IF 1.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.11
Doga Atalay, U. Korkut, M. Nicolson, P. Scholten, M. Laidlaw
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引用次数: 0
What Do Citizens Do? Immigrants, Acts of Citizenship and State Expectations in New York and Berlin 公民做什么?纽约和柏林的移民、公民法案和国家期望
IF 1.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.12
R. Harper
Governments make assumptions about immigrants and then craft policies based on those assumptions to yield what they hope will be effective naturalisation outcomes: state security and trustworthy citizens. This study examines the thoughts, experiences and opinions about citizenship and civic engagement, drawing on a dataset of 150 one-hour interviews with permanent residents and naturalised citizens in New York and Berlin in 2004–2010 and again 2016–2020. It includes those who have naturalised or hold immigration statuses necessary for naturalisation (i.e., those who can and will naturalise, those who can but will not naturalise and those rejected for naturalisation or who do not meet eligibility requirements). I explore how immigrants participate as citizens and privileged non-citizens. My findings include the fact that immigrants define civic engagement – what ‘citizen’ participation means and who participates – more broadly and narrowly than anticipated. Immigrant perceptions of naturalisation and what becoming a citizen meant to them, and how naturalisation personally affected modes of participation. Defensive citizenship stimulated naturalisation but was deemed insufficient in contemporary New York and Berlin to protect immigrants and their engagement. State-designed naturalisation processes ignore immigrants’ perspectives and performative modes of citizenship and, thus, ineffectively select the citizens states say they want.
政府对移民做出假设,然后根据这些假设制定政策,以产生他们希望的有效入籍结果:国家安全和值得信赖的公民。本研究利用2004-2010年和2016-2020年期间对纽约和柏林永久居民和入籍公民进行的150次一小时访谈的数据集,考察了有关公民身份和公民参与的想法、经历和观点。它包括那些已经入籍或持有入籍所需的移民身份的人(即那些能够和将要入籍的人,那些能够但不会入籍的人,以及那些被拒绝入籍或不符合资格要求的人)。我探索移民如何作为公民和享有特权的非公民参与。我的发现包括这样一个事实,即移民对公民参与的定义——“公民”参与意味着什么,谁参与——比预期的更广泛、更狭隘。移民对入籍的看法和成为公民对他们意味着什么,以及入籍个人如何影响参与模式。防御性公民身份刺激了入籍,但在当时的纽约和柏林,被认为不足以保护移民和他们的参与。国家设计的入籍程序忽视了移民的观点和公民身份的表现模式,因此,无法有效地选择国家表示想要的公民。
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引用次数: 0
‘That’s so Sexist!’ How Highly Skilled Female Return Migrants Try to Shape Gender Norms in Kosovo “这太性别歧视了!”《高技能女性移民如何在科索沃塑造性别规范》
IF 1.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.05
Janine Isabelle Pinkow-Läpple
Kosovo is a country profoundly shaped by migration. A growing body of literature pays tribute to this. However, up to now, it has barely focused on the implications of return. Female returnees – and especially highly skilled female returnees – are even less likely to be in the focus of research. Against this background, this paper investigates how highly skilled female Kosovars experience migration to North America or Western Europe and their subsequent return to Kosovo. Within this setup, the focus is on the impact of migration on the participants’ gender norms and their attempts to shape those in Kosovo upon return. The results show that all participants experienced their sojourn abroad as empowering. The majority made use of this empowerment and actively fought for gender equality after return. However, resistance by the local population and reintegration issues impeded their engagement, prompting every second participant amongst those interviewed for this study to consider re-emigration. Despite this, two-thirds of the participants stayed and continued their engagement for gender equality but usually in an adapted manner. The paper concludes that highly skilled female return migrants have great – although fragile – potential to promote gender equality in Kosovo.
科索沃是一个深受移民影响的国家。越来越多的文学作品对此表示敬意。然而,到目前为止,它几乎没有关注回报的影响。女性海归——尤其是高技能的女性海归——更不可能成为研究的重点。在此背景下,本文调查了科索沃高技能女性移民到北美或西欧以及随后返回科索沃的经历。在这个设置中,重点是移民对参与者性别规范的影响,以及他们在返回科索沃后试图塑造这些规范的影响。结果表明,所有的参与者都认为他们在国外的逗留是一种赋权。大多数人利用这种权力,在返回后积极争取性别平等。然而,当地居民的抵抗和重新融入社会的问题阻碍了他们的参与,促使本研究采访的每两个参与者都考虑重新移民。尽管如此,三分之二的参与者留下并继续参与性别平等,但通常以一种适应的方式。这篇论文的结论是,高技能的女性回乡移民在促进科索沃的性别平等方面具有巨大的——尽管是脆弱的——潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Mixing Different Traditions and Picking What’s Best’: Characteristics and Migration Experiences of Polish High-Tech Professionals in Silicon Valley “融会贯通,择其精华”:波兰高科技人才在硅谷的特点与迁移经验
IF 1.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.02
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引用次数: 0
Public Libraries and Spaces of Micro Connection in the Intercultural City 跨文化城市中的公共图书馆与微连接空间
IF 1.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.54667/ceemr.2023.03
Melike Peterson
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Central and Eastern European Migration Review
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