{"title":"Uncertain portfolio optimization based on Dempster-Shafer theory","authors":"Amirhossein Skoruchi, Emran Mohammadi","doi":"10.5267/j.msl.2022.1.001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Nowadays, the selection and management of the optimal portfolio are the most primary fields of financial decision-making. Thereby, selecting a portfolio capable of providing the highest efficiency and, at the same time, the lowest investment risk has been turned into one of the most critical concerns among financial activists. However, in this selection, the two factors above are not the only determining ones. Various factors are affecting financial markets' behavior under different possible scenarios, which should be identified. In this paper, we examine the high sensitivity of the Iranian capital market to the exchange rate fluctuations in the different scenarios due to the lack of a unified view of the value of that rate among experts as one of the mentioned factors and obtain its value using Dempster–Shafer theory (DST). Then, a portfolio selection model that prefers stocks with higher ranks is proposed. Representative results of the real-life case study reveal that the submitted approach is productive and practically applicable.","PeriodicalId":30205,"journal":{"name":"Management Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Management Science Letters","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2022.1.001","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
Nowadays, the selection and management of the optimal portfolio are the most primary fields of financial decision-making. Thereby, selecting a portfolio capable of providing the highest efficiency and, at the same time, the lowest investment risk has been turned into one of the most critical concerns among financial activists. However, in this selection, the two factors above are not the only determining ones. Various factors are affecting financial markets' behavior under different possible scenarios, which should be identified. In this paper, we examine the high sensitivity of the Iranian capital market to the exchange rate fluctuations in the different scenarios due to the lack of a unified view of the value of that rate among experts as one of the mentioned factors and obtain its value using Dempster–Shafer theory (DST). Then, a portfolio selection model that prefers stocks with higher ranks is proposed. Representative results of the real-life case study reveal that the submitted approach is productive and practically applicable.
期刊介绍：
Management Science Letters is a peer reviewed, monthly publication dedicated to create a forum for scientists in all over the world who wish to share their experiences and knowledge in the field of management skills in the form of original, high quality and value added articles. The journal''s policy is to perform a peer review on all submitted articles and the papers will be appeared in a form of online on our website as soon as the review result becomes positive. The journal covers both empirical and theoretical aspects of management and gives the chance on sharing knowledge among practitioners. Management Science Letters is dedicated for publishing in the following areas: • Quality Management • Production Management (Scheduling, Production management, etc.) • Total Quality Management (TQM) • Six Sigma • Production Efficiency • Just in Time Inventory • Data Envelopment Analysis • Balanced Score Card • Activity Based Cost (ABC) • Technology Acceptance Model • Marketing planning and Customer Relationship Management • Critical Success Factors • e-learning • Customer satisfaction, Job satisfaction, Job turnover, • Organizational commitment, Employee Commitment • Knowledge Management • Knowledge sharing • Human Resources Management (Employee training, Employee Performance, Work achievements,) • Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) issues and Economic development • Innovation, Creativity, Productivity and Performance • Multi-Criteria Decision Making Applications in Management Science (AHP, BWM, TOPSIS, …) • Education Management, Social development, Public Policy • Tourism Industry, Tourism promotion, Tourism directorates • Business performance and financial performance
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