Analysis of nominal exchange rate pass-through effect on inflation rate in selected countries

A. Živković
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Abstract

Inflation rate is one of the essential macroeconomics variables and it represents the main goal of monetary policy. It is determined by a great number of factors, so it is necessary to analyse the impact their changes have on inflation rate. The purpose of this research is the analysis of the nominal exchange rate pass-through effect on inflation rate in selected emerging and developed countries in the period 2014-2020, which share the same characteristics of inflation targeting, as main monetary policy regime, and managed floating exchange rate, as exchange rate type. Inverse proportion between volatility of nominal exchange rate and inflation rate is proven (depreciation of nominal exchange rate of national currency leads towards the growth of inflation rate), as well as higher pass-through effect in emerging countries compared to developed countries.
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选定国家名义汇率对通货膨胀率的传导效应分析
通货膨胀率是重要的宏观经济变量之一,代表着货币政策的主要目标。它是由很多因素决定的,所以有必要分析它们的变化对通货膨胀率的影响。本研究的目的是分析2014-2020年期间新兴国家和发达国家名义汇率对通货膨胀率的传导效应,这两个国家的主要货币政策制度都是通货膨胀目标制,而有管理的浮动汇率则是汇率制。证明了名义汇率波动率与通货膨胀率成反比(本国货币名义汇率贬值导致通货膨胀率上升),并且新兴国家的传递效应高于发达国家。
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