Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management

Abstract

The growing "chaotic" potential of modern crises, such as the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, imposes an urgent need to review the existing and find more flexible methodological tools, in order to strengthen preparedness and timely response to the crisis. By analyzing various aspects of managing the current crisis situation, it is suggested that the application of different methods of mathematical-operational research would result in potentially new and significant insights into this complex problem situation. The paper, therefore, seeks to point out the implications of formal security theories and different theoretical models of resilience on COVID-19 crisis management. First, the application of deterministic chaos theory as a tool for early warning and, thus, avoiding strategic surprises is suggested. In that way, the threatening "chaotic" potential of the risks that could be seen would be recognized. Furthermore, predictive models, as a "part" of the apparatus of certain versions of game theory, can contribute to more optimal strategic decision-making, in terms of making decisions that would maximize the "usefulness" of the outcome of the actors themselves (primarily towards "nature"), i.e. minimize inevitable negative side effects. Finally, the potential of the application of various multivariate techniques for making the most valid decisions at the tactical and operational level is pointed out. Finally, models of resilience are presented, each of which has the potential to analyze the impact of certain aspects of managing the current crisis situation.