Electoral Accountability for the Economy in Latin America

Abstract

This article reviews the role that economic performance plays as incumbents look to maintain political support in Latin America. Survey data from 18 Latin America countries in 2014 show that Latin Americans’ perceptions of economic performance reflect macroeconomic outcomes, respondents’ own personal situations, and political considerations. Respondents hold politicians accountable for perceived sociotropic outcomes, with those who perceive that things have gone badly considering alternatives to the incumbent more than abstention or nullifying their vote. Finally, the electoral effect of economic performance varies systematically across countries, with economic volatility increasing its salience while political and economic factors that concentrate control of economy in domestic actors and economic policy in the incumbent party facilitate attributing responsibility to the government. While perceived outcomes have their roots in a variety of national-level and personal factors, voters generally approach accountability for those outcomes in a sophisticated manner.