Seismic Hazards Along the Longmen Shan Fault: Insights from Stress Transfer Between Major Earthquakes and Regional b-Values

Abstract

There are two seismic gaps (Dayi seismic gap and Tianquan-Kangding seismic gap) on the Longmen Shan fault (LMSF), despite the successive occurrence of the 2008 M_w7.9 Wenchuan and 2013 M_w6.6 Lushan earthquakes. To analyze the effects of the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes on the LMSF (especially on seismic gaps along the LMSF) and regional seismic hazards, we calculate Coulomb stress changes caused by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes based on a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model. Additionally, we calculate the spatial distribution of regional b-values based on the instrumental seismic catalog before the Wenchuan earthquake. By utilizing the inverse correlation between b-value and stress level, we infer the regional background stress level. The results show that regional earthquakes (including the 2008 M_w7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, 2013 M_w6.6 Lushan earthquake, 2014 M_w6.1 Kangding earthquake, 2017 M_w6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquake, and 2022 M_w6.6 Luding earthquake) occurred in regions characterized by low b-values. Meanwhile, subsequent earthquakes occurred in regions where Coulomb stress changes caused by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes were positive. This suggests that regions with both low b-values and positive Coulomb stress changes may pose higher seismic hazards. We found that there are four regions (southern Xianshuihe fault, Dongkunlun fault, northern Xiaojinhe fault, and Hanan-Qingshanwan fault) with both positive Coulomb stress changes caused by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes and low b-values, which may indicate high stress accumulation and high seismic hazard in the future. The results also show that Coulomb stress changes caused by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes increased significantly in the Dayi seismic gap (+ 0.216 ~  + 2.607 MPa) and Tianquan-Kangding seismic gap (+ 0.021 ~  + 0.211 MPa), while the result of the high b-values for the Dayi and Tianquan-Kangding seismic gaps indicate less background stress accumulation. However, with continued tectonic loading, seismic hazards on both seismic gaps should attract our attention.